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If you believe the predictions somberly passed around nowadays, there will be a radical change in the landscape of food retailing by the turn of the century, or shortly thereafter. Many small to mid-sized traditional supermarket retailers will be out of business. Others will be merged and purged. Everyone will be challenged to survive. And that's the word, isn't it? Survive. Everyone will be pressed

If you believe the predictions somberly passed around nowadays, there will be a radical change in the landscape of food retailing by the turn of the century, or shortly thereafter. Many small to mid-sized traditional supermarket retailers will be out of business. Others will be merged and purged. Everyone will be challenged to survive. And that's the word, isn't it? Survive. Everyone will be pressed to survive the growth of food sales outside the traditional supermarket. Survive. You can't use that word today without including Wal-Mart in the same breath. Whether it's the traditional discount store with more food, or the Supercenter, or Sam's Club, it all comes down to the same thing -- more food for sale by the biggest and most aggressive retailer in the civilized world.

Survive. How to stop the Wal-Mart juggernaut. Actually, there's no shortage of battle plans: emphasize fresh foods, start a frequent shopper program, promote premium store brands, open pharmacies and video departments, try data base marketing.

The goals of all these strategies are the same: Provide the convenience of one-stop shopping and maintain shopper loyalty. Whether these methods will stop the bleeding remains to be seen. The Arkansas Traveler already has some of these advantages and is looking at the others. And they have the lowest prices, and possibly always will. The big question is whether enough consumers will like food shopping in supercenters and warehouse clubs after the novelty fades. Despite the flurry of statistics and predictions, nobody knows the answer yet. What does all of this mean for brand marketers? It depends on your point of view. One view says it doesn't make any difference who sells food products to consumers. If it's the traditional grocer, fine. If it's the new supercenter, fine. Volume is volume. Call this the New World Order.

The other way of thinking says it's better if long-time customers -- the supermarket retailer turned business partner -- stay in business. It's not good to have so much volume controlled by one customer. Who knows what life will be like in a Wal-Mart World? Those manufacturers holding the latter point of view probably put a lot of energy in Efficient Consumer Response strategies. This elaborate network of business techniques and partnerships boils down to helping supermarkets survive. It means lower prices for the consumer. It means competing more effectively with alternate formats. Complex business strategies aside, consumers will determine the future retail landscape. Where will they shop? Will it be where they find the lowest prices in town? Or will it be where they find a smooth amalgam of low prices, convenience and fun. Yes, fun. Shopping as an enjoyable experience. In other words, shopping in Stew Leonard's rather than in a store the size of a football field. Brand marketers looking to exploit this fun factor should turn to Page 13 in this issue of Brand Marketing.

John Karolefski is editor of Brand Marketing.

TAGS: Walmart