CHICAGO -- The number of personal computers with CD-ROM drives will exceed the number of either Sega or Nintendo 16-bit video game units by the end of 1995.
So said Glen Ochsenreiter, managing director at the Multimedia PC Marketing Council of the Software Publishers Association, Washington, during a special "InfoHighway '94 Conference" held a day prior to the Summer Consumer Electronics Show here in June.
"As a gaming platform, the personal computer platform is coming on very, very strong, and it is going to eclipse the dedicated video game machine, although there also will be room [in the market] for the dedicated machines," said Ochsenreiter. The installed base of CD-ROM, or compact disk-read only memory, drives in home computers reached 5 million at the end of 1993, will reach 10 million to 12 million by the end of 1994 and 16 million to 18 million by the end of 1995, he added. There are now about 15 million units of the 16-bit Super Nintendo Entertainment System in consumers' homes and 13.5 million units of Sega Genesis, according to spokespersons for the two companies. "The 8-bit machines peaked in '89 and then had a very rapid decline, but the 16-bit machines were there to pick up the slack. It looks like 16-bit machines peaked in 1993 and are now declining," said Ochsenreiter. The 32-bit machines have yet to be released and are still far in the future, he said.
"The real question is how successfully will they compete with computers in the next 12 to 18 months. It seems that right now $1,500 multimedia PCs and Macintoshes with built-in multimedia capabilities are taking at least some of the market away from video game machines," he explained. "I would argue that it is a trend that is just beginning and will do nothing other than accelerate in the future.
"Video game machines are optimized for game play and low price and they seem to get more expensive with every generation of machine, at least at the introductory price. Computers are optimized for versatility and upgradability and they seem to get less expensive as they get more powerful," said Ochsenreiter. "That's just another reason why the computer mass market has erupted so tremendously in the last 18 months."
Another reason that the PC platform has gained rapid consumer acceptance is because it has a multi-vendor standard, he said. "The success of the PC has come as multiple companies competed with each other to deliver more and more hardware and higher and higher performance at ever lower prices. That is why the PC standard has become 80% or more of the installed base of computers around the world."
Because there are similar standards for CD-ROM, it is following that same trend, he said, adding that multimedia specifications created by the Software Publishers Association "were instrumental in creating the incentive for developers to invest in software" for CD-ROM. "There has been a real proliferation of titles over the last two years, and we are seeing more and more high quality titles," said Ochsenreiter. He added this has been mostly for consumer products, but CD-ROM software for business has started to take off too. A key advance for personal computer use was the release of Microsoft Windows because it made the machines much easier for consumers to use, he said. "From the software point of view, the introduction of Windows 3.1 was very significant, because as challenging as it still is for many people, it was a monumental advance over simply using DOS."
An upgrade of Windows expected toward the end of the year will make using the computers even easier, Ochsenreiter noted. "Plug-and-play" CD-ROM technology will be in place by the end of next year, he added. "Relatively soon, computers are going to be in the same ballpark as game machines in ease of use." Dedicated game machines and computers both will have a place in consumers' homes, Ochsenreiter said, adding he believes "interactive TV and multimedia computers will enhance each other."
Software will evolve with the hardware in the future, Ochsenreiter noted. "Things that will be obvious to us in 10 to 20 years haven't occurred to people yet. Being able to bring video into applications will create whole new genres for entertainment and education. But it takes creative people a certain amount of time to figure out what to do with it and where the new creative outlets will find fruition," he said.
