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WHAT IS BEHIND THE LATEST CATEGORY SALES NUMBERS

If one picture is worth a thousand words, then a thousand numbers should produce at least one very good picture.That proves to be true as far as the supermarket industry is concerned.This week's SN is packed with sales numbers from Information Resources Inc. that provide a detailed snapshot of food and nonfood category performance across multiple retail channels. The data is very recent, covering

If one picture is worth a thousand words, then a thousand numbers should produce at least one very good picture.

That proves to be true as far as the supermarket industry is concerned.

This week's SN is packed with sales numbers from Information Resources Inc. that provide a detailed snapshot of food and nonfood category performance across multiple retail channels. The data is very recent, covering the 52-week period ended June 13 of this year. The data is also comprehensive, including charts outlining results in almost 300 categories in the up-front Retail section, beginning on Page 16. Fifty key categories were chosen for further analysis in the Fresh Market, Center Store and Nonfood Strategies sections.

The data and articles tell a story of an industry under the influence of some powerful trends and developments, which include the following:

Health: The low-carb, high-protein phenomenon's impact is pervasive in the data. In the 52-week period, supermarket sales for fresh eggs and egg substitutes surged 25%, meat/poultry items increased almost 19%, and yogurt was up about 6%. Categories taking hits because of the trend included white and brown/powder/flavored sugar (down a combined 3.5%) and dry rice and mixes (off 1% on top of declines over the past two calendar years). Low-carb is just one component of the consumer transformation to healthier lifestyles, which was everywhere to be seen in the IRI results. For example, energy drinks posted a 55% sales surge over the prior year, snack bars/granola bars rose 8.5%, and sugar substitutes advanced 18%.

Convenience: Nothing underlines the consumer's embrace of convenience more than declines in some products requiring preparation, such as frozen juice, which fell more than 13% in sales. In comparison, ready-to-drink versions of juices fared better. The convenience factor figures in the sales of the highest-volume Center Store categories, including cold cereal, carbonated beverages, salty snacks and candy. These products are taking on the role of quick snacks with increasingly convenient packaging.

Food Pricing: Meat sales weren't only driven by low-carb diets. Higher commodity prices translated into more dollars spent on beef and other meats. Milk price increases contributed to sales gains for that category, which has been level or slightly ahead in consumption.

Demographics: The influence of an aging population was evident in the growth of such categories as adult incontinence products, up a notable 5.7%. Older consumers are also believed to have an impact on the advance of categories ranging from vitamins to men's grooming products.

Channel Battle: The IRI data shows that alternate formats are making some additional inroads into supermarket space. Natural cheese sales surged 9.5% in supermarkets, an impressive performance. However, drug stores are slowly building a business in that category. Sales of natural cheese at drug stores advanced about 6% in the latest 52 weeks, although from a much smaller base than supermarkets.

Perhaps the most ironic news emerging from the data was that sales of anti-smoking products tumbled 17%. It seems that many people have already kicked the habit, reducing the need for these aids. Some categories can be victims of their own success.