NEW YORK — Goldman Sachs here estimated that supermarkets could pick up 7% of the stimulus checks the government will issue next month, or close to $2 billion during the second and third quarters. "Although $2 billion is only about 0.3% of overall supermarket consumption, it could bolster comps at a time when food inflation is dampening demand," according to a Goldman Sachs research report entitled Independent Insights, which asked 2,500 U.S. consumers how they plan to spend their rebates. The report said the amount spent at supermarkets could be higher than the $2 billion projected if cost pressures on essentials like food and gas drive a higher proportion of spending into non-discretionary outlets," or if the percentage of tax check dollars spent is greater than expected." Goldman said it believes Kroger will be a big beneficiary of the spending because the amount of tax checks will be greater in the Southeast and Midwest, which are Kroger strongholds, and because Kroger is offering a 10% bonus if shoppers cash the checks at its stores and put the money into a Kroger gift card, a program Supervalu is also offering.

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