NEW YORK — The economy will gradually pick up steam throughout 2008 and will not slip into a recession, thanks to stimuli from the government, the National Retail Federation predicted at a press conference here yesterday. “Interest-rate cuts and an economic stimulus package from the federal government should help things in the second half,” said Rosalind Wells, the chief economist for the NRF. She said retail sales would slow to about 3.2% growth in the first half of the year but pick up to 3.8% growth in the second half, for overall growth of 3.5% in 2008. That compares with estimated 4% growth in retail sales in 2007. “It’s not falling off a cliff to go from 4% to 3.5%,” she said. “It’s a slowdown, and we’ve had worse.” Wells said she expects President Bush to unveil a plan to stimulate the economy — possibly a tax rebate — during this month’s State of the Union Address. She projected the gross domestic product would grow a mere 1.5% in the first half of 2008 but will average 2% growth for the year after a second-half surge in consumer spending.

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