Industry Executives See Another Wild Ride Ahead

Jan 4, 2010 12:00 PM, By SN STAFF

Food retailers expect little change from a grim 2009


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Harps started communicating a stronger price message a little more than a year ago when the economic downturn became more intense, Collins said. “We started running more specials — recession-busters to try to get people to see the special pricing you have,” he explained. “I don't think you can just be solid on price, because people understand that Wal-Mart has strong prices. It's important to say something about the price of your groceries, and what makes that special.”

Fundamental changes in the economy that might help food retailers are still months away, Collins predicted.

“The question I have is when are jobs going to turn around and when will banks start lending money again, and when will small businesses start gaining ground,” he said. “I think it will be late in 2010 before we see any of that happening.”

In the meantime, the slow economy — particularly its effects on lending — could get in the way of businesses like Harps that intend to continue their growth.

“One of our strategies has been to grow as fast as we can. And with the situation with banks today, navigating the financial side of the business is a challenge,” he said. “Even for those companies that have done very well, the ability to borrow money and the ability to make changes in loan agreements and covenants has been difficult, and I'm concerned that it will continue to be difficult. Refinancing right now is very expensive.”

Doug Nidiffer, chairman, president and CEO of C&K Markets, Brookings, Ore., said he believes consumers “will remain a little bit constrained” in 2010, “particularly in our region, which has been affected by high unemployment and mill and plant closures.

“We do see the economy kind of bottoming out, though, but it may not be clear till 2011. We're cautiously optimistic that things will get better, but it will be a very slow recovery and we think 2010 will be a slow, choppy year.

“As a result, shoppers will be looking for bargains and low-end pricing, and private label will continue to do better as people look for good deals.”

Nidiffer said flexibility will be key. “We can go upscale or downscale as needed, and we can change our offerings fairly quickly,” he said. “Our program throughout 2009 has been to offer more values and lower-priced items to respond to consumer desires, and we'll use that lesson as we move through 2010.”

He said C&K, most of whose 59 stores operate under the Ray's Food Place banner, plans “aggressive promotions,” including a first-ever game in the spring to drive traffic. “Whatever consumer dollars are out there, we will be going after it this spring,” Nidiffer said.

Gilliland of Sunflower said his chain experienced a difficult 2009 when pressure on shoppers showed up primarily in the basket size, as customers cut back on discretionary purchases.

“The biggest statistic in our particular business is that our comp-store customer count has increased quite a bit — close to 7% year over year — but the average basket has gone down, unfortunately.”

Sunflower targets a value-seeking shopper, using the tag line “Serious Food — Silly Prices,” a message that resonated with customers in the past year, Gilliland explained. The company was able to meet its financial targets despite the reduced spending by customers.

Sales totaled just over $300 million for the year, and the company hopes to approach $400 million in 2010 with the addition of another seven to nine stores. Last month, the company, which now operates 27 stores in six states, obtained $35 million in financing to help fuel that expansion.

To meet profit projections in 2009, the company cut costs and delayed hiring some support staff “that we would have liked to have hired,” Gilliland said.



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