Why home baking continues to persist

Home baking remains a significant opportunity for supermarkets to merchandise baking ingredients, despite a decline in the pastime since its surge during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Many consumers who were bitten by the baking bug have transitioned to using prepared mixes and frostings, but a significant number of consumers are still carving out time for scratch baking. A 2023 survey from research firm Mintel found that 47% of U.S. adults said they bake regularly, including 28% who said they bake from scratch and 19% who said they mainly rely on mixes.

“While the share of scratch bakers is on the decline, they remain an engaged group, willing to invest in quality ingredients and taking pride in their work,” the Mintel report concluded. 

Inspiration from social media influencers and other online content creators has also helped keep home baking alive, particularly among young consumers. Retailers can reach these crafty home bakers by offering the right mix of products, along with some supportive resources and education.

Gluten-free mixes have become widely available for easy home baking solutions. Photo credit: Mark Hamsta

As home bakers place a higher value on time savings, retailers have an opportunity to merchandise for convenience, according to Mintel. This can include baking mixes with all or most of the ingredients included, as well as an assortment that allows consumers to choose among specialty ingredients such as those that are gluten-free or organic.

Lesley Wooding, a buyer at Poway, Calif.-based Barons Market, said many home bakers are seeking “fun and easy” baking solutions that call for minimal added ingredients.

“People are still interested in making those home-baked goods, but I think now that people are back to work and back to their normal busy lives, they want a more simplified version of those home-baked things,” she said.

Sales up for both mixes and scratch staples

Dollar sales of all baking mixes were up 2.7% to just over $3 billion across all retail segments in the 52 weeks through July 27, compared with the preceding 52-week span, according to data from research firm NIQ. Unit sales were down slightly, by 0.3%. The data show a wide variation in the performance of different types of baking mixes, with biscuit mix up 7.5% in dollar sales and 5.4% in units, while sales of gingerbread mix fell 13.1% in dollars and 12.7% in units.

Mixes for cakes and muffins were also among the subcategories that posted gains in both dollar and unit sales, while some of the largest categories, including bread mixes and cookie mixes, were down in both dollar and unit sales for the 52-week span.

Baking staples have performed even better than mixes, which some observers attribute both to ongoing interest in scratch baking and to consumers seeking lower-cost solutions amid grocery inflation. Overall sales of baking staples rose 6.1% in the 52-week span, to almost $6.5 billion, with unit sales up 2.8%, according to NIQ data. That included strong gains in flour, baking chips, baking chocolate, baking cocoa, and pie filling, among other common baking ingredients.

According to Mintel report, consumers are also interested in mixes that are high in protein: 28% of consumers surveyed said this would motivate them to try a new baking mix. They are also interested in mixes that use alternative flours such as oat flour or almond flour (23%) and those that use alternative sweeteners such as monk fruit or honey (21%).

Wooding said bakers, much like consumers throughout the store, are seeking cleaner and simpler ingredient lists. Barons has brought in baking products from Miss Jones Baking Co., which features several organic, gluten-free, and other specialty baking mixes and ingredients, to meet these consumers’ demands. New gluten-free products, such as fours made from chickpeas or cassava, for example, have also emerged to provide more options for these shoppers, she said.

Leveraging social media

Younger consumers — both men and women under age 35 — are far more likely to cite online influencers as a source for baking inspiration than older consumers, while they are much less likely to turn to cookbooks, magazines, and family recipes, according to Mintel. Bakers of all ages, however, list cooking and baking websites as being among their top sources for baking inspiration.

“Engaging a young adult audience will be aided by utilizing online ambassadors, including celebrities, individuals who gained fame for their social media content, and virtual influencers,” the Mintel report concluded.

Wooding agreed that baking-content creators on platforms such as Instagram and Tik Tok are helping maintain consumer interest in home baking.

“We've definitely seen social media driving some of the trends,” she said.

Christine Kirby, executive director of the Home Baking Association, also said the explosion of videoconferencing during the pandemic has also helped perpetuate the popularity of home baking, as pastry chefs and baking instructors continue offer lessons online.

“Those kinds of classes continue to do well, and they are very accessible,” she said.

Special occasions help drive sales of decorations for home baking. Photo credit: Mark Hamsta

Merchandising tips

Kirby said supermarkets have an opportunity to capitalize on the lingering popularity of home baking by providing information that helps consumers make decisions about what ingredients to buy. For example, supermarkets could offer guidance on what types of flour work best for different recipes. Displaying QR codes that link to recipes and the ingredients needed to bake them would also be helpful, she said.

Sharon Davis, a Baking STEAM instructor — a learning concept for children that incorporates science, technology, engineering, arts, and math with baking — who has long worked with the HBA, agreed that retailers could do more to educate shoppers interested in baking. She suggested linking to a glossary of terms and techniques she created for the HBA: https://www.homebaking.org/glossary/

Davis also offered some additional advice for supermarket operators seeking to optimize sales in their baking aisles:

• Consider merchandising dried fruits and oatmeal in the baking aisle — both are often used in baking

• Dried buttermilk is another key ingredient for home bakers that Davis said she wishes all grocers carried

• Consider positioning the baking aisle as close as possible to dairy and eggs, as these ingredients are critical to baking

• Offer rye, spelt, and soy flours as they are key to multi-grain baking, and can be used in making pancakes and waffles, for example.