Grocery deflation reaches 10-month mark

Prices for grocery store food dropped again in September, marking the 10th consecutive month of year-over-year monthly price deflation — a skein now surpassing the duration of the deflation that accompanied the 2009 recession.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index, released Tuesday, the index for food-at-home declined by 0.1% as compared to August, led again by decreasing prices for meats, poultry, fish and eggs (down 0.2% from the previous month) and by fruits and vegetables, which turned deflationary by 0.3% in September after being unchanged in August. The index for non-alcoholic beverages fell by 0.4% in September, its fourth monthly decline over the last five months.

In contrast, the indexes for cereals and bakery products, dairy and related products, and all other food at home all showed 0.1% increases in September as compared to prices in August.

Photo: RTimages / iStock / Thinkstock. Illustration: SN/Anna Kang

Overall, food-at-home prices were down by 2.2% from last September, the largest such decrease since December of 2009, with all six major grocery categories down from last year, the Bureau said. On a year-over-year basis, meats, poultry, fish and eggs are down by 6.3%; dairy down by 2.5%; non-alcoholic beverages down by 0.9%; fruits and vegetables down by 0.7%; other food at home down by 0.6%; and cereals and bakery products down by 0.5%.

In a research note Tuesday, Shane Higgins, an analyst with Deutsche Bank, said a weighted Producer Price Index showed slight improvement in September, suggesting a low point in the deflationary cycle was approaching.

The overall food CPI was unchanged from August, helped by a 0.2 increase in prices for food away-from-home. The index for food away from home, a proxy for restaurants, has risen 2.4% on a year-over-year basis.