Category update: Frozen sees growth in dollars, units in August

In August, frozen saw growth and meat sales were strong, according to recent data from 210 Analytics and Circana. Retail also appears to be benefiting once more from consumers eating out at restaurants less often, 210 observed. 

Here are some other observations from the 210 Analytics report: 

Overall inflation snapshot

In August, the price per unit across all foods and beverages stood at $4.23, an increase of 1.6% versus August 2023, according to 210 Analytics, pulling data from Circana. This is higher than the 1.5% price year-over-year increase seen in July as well as the first quarter averages of +1.2%. Prices in the fresh perimeter were up 2.6% year-over-year in August versus 1.1% in the center of the store. The average price of $4.23 is 35.1% higher than the 2019, pre-pandemic average of $3.13.  

Frozen food inflation

The average price per unit across all items in the frozen food departments was flat in August. A few items experienced deflation, including fruits and vegetables and meals. Others, such as meat/poultry, experienced above-average and rising inflation, while most categories reflect August prices coming down in comparison to the full-year view.

Diving deeper into frozen fruit and veggies

Frozen saw strong fruit performance, with healthy dollar, unit and volume gains. As restaurant traffic slows, fries, taters, and hashbrowns are all showing robust volume and unit increases. This goes hand in hand with ongoing strength for processed meat, which includes chicken nuggets and sausage.

Meals and desserts big sellers

Frozen food sales for the year totaled $84.9 billion, whereas the five August weeks generated $8.3 billion. Meals and desserts were the largest sellers in August. More and more categories are growing unit sales in the shorter-term view, including robust gains for processed meat. In the 52-week view, four categories grew units year-on-year, including desserts, fruit and vegetables, processed meat and baked goods. 

Meat department pounds up 1.8% year over year

The average price per pound in the meat department across all cuts and kinds, both fixed and random weight, stood at $4.78 in August 2024, up 3.2% year-on-year. The average processed meat price stayed above $5, up 1.2% versus prior-year levels. August brought a mix of price movements. Pork, beef and bacon, in particular, experienced increases in price. Lamb, turkey, packaged lunch meat, smoked ham and processed chicken experienced price declines.

August was a very strong month for the meat department, especially on the fresh meat side. The five August weeks generated $10.1 billion, which was up 4.6% over August 2023, with pound gains of 1.4%. 

In the 52-week view, dollars now trend 3.2% ahead of last year. This increase reflects a combination of mild price increases and pound gains of 1.0%. Pound growth is driven by strong everyday and holiday demand for meat and poultry as the world has turned home-centric once more. 

With August delivering another strong performance, the year-to-date meat department sales reached $69 billion, which reflects an increase of 4.2%. Year-to-date pound sales reached 15 billion, which is up 1.8% over the same period last year. 

And turkey and lamb aren’t doing too shabby

The big two, beef and chicken, had strong pound and dollar sales, but smaller proteins, including turkey and lamb also experienced robust gains in pound sales. For beef, the rise in pounds in combination with continued inflation led to an increase of 9.5% in August dollar sales compared to August 2023. Lamb’s 15.9% increase in dollar sales year-on-year is the result of a substantial increase in pound sales (+27.1%) combined with deflation of 8.8%. 

Bakery sees turnaround

Bakery was the last perimeter department in August to fully turn around sales. In-store bakery had flat dollars and units, but the bakery aisle lost ground. In the perimeter bakery, cakes and cookies were the biggest sellers, but bread came on strong.

Deli entertaining reflects another big food/social media trend, being pickled items. Pickles/relish continued to have strong results, up 24.1% in pounds. Prepared meats, with rotisserie chicken as the big seller, continued to astound with a 12.9% increase in unit sales.