Category update: Nature and manmade disasters help with September food sales

A double shot of hurricanes and a three-day port strike provided a late September boost for many of the grocery categories, especially involving frozen foods.

Shoppers in the Southeast and along the East coast were stocking up on food necessities due to Hurricanes Helene and Milton and the brief port work stoppage.

During the week in advance of Hurricane Milton making landfall in Florida, total food and beverage sales increased 16.8% in the Southeast, according to data by 210 Analytics, with substantial spikes in beverages, meat, and shelf-stable items. Frozen food sales increased 8.6% in the Southeast that week.

Processed meat was the top seller in the frozen food arena, with unit sales up 7.8% year over year (dollar sales increased 11.4%). Over the past year, processed meat leads the frozen food category with an 8.5% year-over-year rise in units sold (dollar sales up 6.2%).

Meat/poultry and seafood units sold were up 2.9% and 2.1%, respectively, in September. Dessert novelties registered a 3% year-over-year increase.

Frozen beverages (13.2% drop) and snacks (4.2% decline) had the largest decrease vs. September 2023.

Overall, frozen fruit came in with a 6.8% year-over-year increase in units sold (6.6% rise in dollar sales) in September while potatoes/onion rings continued to sell well with a 4.0% surge in units sold (dollar sales were down 0.4%). Unit sales for taters were up 6.8% year over year in September.

Breaking it down even further, onion ring unit sales increased 12.1% year over year (dollar sales were up 3.6%), and unit sales for hash browns spiked 6.5% (dollar sales increased 1.4%).

Prepared vegetables unit sales suffered the most in September with a 16.5% drop (dollar sales decreased 20%).

Meat’s mainstay

Meat sales continued to produce positive results in September. The four weeks generated $7.9 billion, up 5.5% vs. September 2023, with pound gains of 3.3%.

Over a 52-week period, dollars now trend 3.7% ahead of last year, and pound growth stands at 1.4%.

Fresh lamb led the way with a year-over-year pound increase of 10.8% (dollar sales were up 4.9%) while fresh turkey registered a 9.6%-pound increase (dollar sales rose 9.6%.

Every category in the fresh meat arena other than veal (down 4.8% year over year) showed increases in pounds sold in September. Fresh beef (5.4% uptick in pounds, 10.9% in dollars), fresh exotic (5.1% in pounds, 3.8% in dollars), and fresh pork (4.5% in pounds, 5.1% in dollars) all performed well.

The story was not the same for lamb in the grinds category, where pounds sold were down 24.8% (dollar sales dropped 15.7%).

Ground chicken was the top grind product in September with a year-over-year pounds increase of 8.5% (dollar sales up 8.0%). Ground turkey pound sales received a 5.5% boost (dollar sales increased 4.2%), and ground beef had a year-over-year pounds sold improvement of 2.7% (dollar sales were up 9.6%).

Seafood prices starting to drop

Prices for frozen seafood per pound took a noticeable drop in September. The average price per pound for shrimp was down 4.7% year over year while salmon prices decreased 4.8%. Prices were flat on the fresh seafood side, with shellfish falling 2.7% year over year.

While prices are looking better for shoppers, the average price for fresh seafood per pound ($9.45) remained significantly higher than chicken ($3.11), pork ($3.16), and beef ($6.83).

Still, the price per pound for fresh tilapia (down 3.9% year over year), fresh cod (down 3.8%), fresh shrimp (down 2.7%), and fresh crab (down 2.1%) all decreased.

During the four weeks in September, ambient seafood in cans and pouches reached $256 million in sales, a year-over-year increase of 1.8%.

Sardines was the top monthly seller with a 9.9% increase in units sold (dollar sales were up 13.2%), followed by tuna (6.5% increase in units, 1.6% in dollars) and all other ambient sales (4.0% increase in units, 1.5% drop in dollars).

Fresh/refrigerated seafood showed modest gains in September (0.6% increase in pounds, 0.2% increase in dollars). Fresh shellfish pound sales were up 1.2% year over year (dollar sales declined 1.5%), and fresh finfish pound sales rose 0.3% (dollar sales were up 0.8%).

In terms of species, trout was the top seller for September (22.5% year-over-year gains in pounds sold, 15.4% increase in dollar sales). Cod (10.7% increase in pounds sold, 6.4% bump in dollar sales), and lobster (1.3% in pounds sold, 4.1% increase in dollar sales) also performed well.

In the frozen seafood category, unit sales were up 2.1% vs. last September but dollar sales were down 0.3%. Frozen cod showed an 8.4% year-over-year increase in pounds sold (7.0% rise in dollar sales), and frozen salmon was up 6.5% in pounds (1.4% increase in dollar sales). Frozen tilapia, however, was down 6.9% year over year in pounds sold and dropped 2.2% in dollar sales.

Nature could impact produce

The hurricanes that ripped through the Southeast are sure to produce price hikes in the fresh produce area, but the price for vegetables was down 0.4% year over year in September while the price for fruit was up slightly at 2.8%.

Fresh vegetables showed a 2.5% year-over-year increase in units sold in September (dollar sales increased 2.7%) while fresh fruit rose 2.1% in units and 11.0% in dollar sales.

Grapes (up 12.5% in pounds year over year, up 9.7% in dollar sales), peaches (up 7.2% in pounds, up 4.7% in dollars), and berries (up 6.3% in pounds and 10.8% in dollars) were the top sellers in fresh fruit.

On the fresh vegetable side, cucumbers (15.8% rise in pounds sold year over year, 14.1% increase in dollar sales), and broccoli (8.1% rise in pounds, 5.6% rise in dollar sales) were the best performers in September. Tomatoes (up 5.2% in pounds year over year, 3.3% in dollar sales), salad kits (up 5.0% in pounds, 3.5% in dollar sales), and peppers (4.0% increase in pounds, 6.5% rise in dollar sales) also performed well.

Listeria outbreak takes toll on deli meat sales

Feeling the impact of one of the most fatal Listeria outbreaks in over a decade, deli meat sales dropped 9.2% in units sold year over year in September, and dollar sales were down 11.9%. Contaminated Boar’s Head deli meat caused 10 fatalities and hospitalized dozens more. The three other categories, however, performed well with prepared deli (4.9% increase in dollar sales) and entertaining deli (4.8% increase in dollar sales) both up 4.4% in units sold vs. September 2023. Deli cheese was up 0.5% in units sold and 1.0% in dollar sales.

In the deli prepared sector, prepared meats were on top with a 10.8% year-over-year increase in units sold and an 8.8% surge in dollar sales. Pizza (up 9.4% in units, 4.3% in dollar sales), salads (up 7.1% in units, 6.3% in dollar sales), combo meals (up 5.1% in units, 9.6% in dollar sales), and entrees (up 5.3% in units, 6.1% in dollar sales) were the other strong performers. Appetizers showed a 3.6% increase in units and a 3.6% increase in dollar sales year over year, while desserts had a 3.4% rise in units and a 3.7% uptick in dollar sales in September.

Perimeter bakery and center-store bakery continue to lag behind year-ago levels in both dollar and unit sales. For September, center-store bakery was down 1.2% in units and 1.4% in dollar sales. Perimeter bakery fared a little better as it was down just 0.2% in units and 0.4% in dollar sales.

Croissants (6.9% year-over-year increase in units sold, 7.8% in dollar sales), breads (up 4.9% in units but down 4.3% in dollar sales), and buns and rolls (up 3.2% in unit sales, 4.1% in dollar sales) were the lead performers. Specialty desserts, on the other hand, dropped 11.0% in units sold and 9.6% in dollar sales year over year in September.

Alternatives no longer the preferred alternative

Plant-based meat alternatives are showing no signs of a rebound. The category registered an 8.8% sales decrease year over year in September for both refrigerated and frozen. Pound sales were down 12.5%.

Refrigerated plant-based meat alternatives suffered a 22.8% year-over-year decline in dollar sales in September. Frozen meat/poultry alternatives decreased in dollars, units, and pounds.