Amazon Stands to See Big CPG Sales on Prime Day: Numerator

It's not just electronics and gifts that Amazon customers will be looking for during during this summer's Prime Day event, happening July 12–13: Chicago-based Numerator says that for the first time, Amazon is "poised to capture a record-high 20%-plus CPG share this Prime Day." More than half of U.S. households—53%—have an Amazon Prime membership, according to Numerator, and in a survey, 65% of Amazon customers said they plan to shop on Prime Day.

Seattle-based Amazon’s CPG share has grown across every Prime Day event in the past three years, Numerator reported, from 16.2% on Prime Day 2019 and 18.3% on Prime Day 2020 to 19.1% during Prime Day 2021. Additionally, according to Numerator, Amazon’s CPG share increases four to five times on Prime Day: In 2021, it was 4.7% the month before Prime Day, 5.7% the month of Prime Day, and 19.1% during the two-day Prime Day event.

In a trend accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, consumers today "are more accustomed to buying their everyday goods online," Numerator CEO Eric Belcher said in a statement. "This year on Prime Day, consumers will be looking for deals on essential goods in addition to electronics and gifts," he stated.

Prime Day also has an impact on in-store sales for both small and large retailers. In 2021, smaller retailers experienced a 10.5-point CPG share decline from the prior month while Prime Day was taking place. Walmart saw an in-store sales share decline of 2.1 points; Kroger and Costco saw smaller share-of-sales declines of 1.4 percentage points and 1.2 percentage points, respectively.

Within the household and baby product sectors, Amazon sees share gains of 3.8 points in household and 3.7 points in the baby on Prime Day, taking share of sales primarily from Walmart, which sees its share of sales decline 1.4 percentage in household goods and 1.7 percentage points in baby products during Prime Day. 

Amazon leads Walmart in awareness of its members-only deals event, too: In Numerator's late June poll—still weeks ahead of this year's Prime Day—47% of Amazon shoppers said they were aware of Prime Day 2022, with more than a quarter saying they found out about it the day the event was announced. That compares with 33% of Walmart.com shoppers who said they knew about the Walmart Weekend sale event as it was taking place June 2–5.