BUBBLE, BUBBLE AND NO TROUBLE

DALE BUSS

As the millennium draws to a close, it's not surprising that there are more celebratory Y2K or millennial-themed advertising campaigns and promotions -- despite some unease about potential disruptions in everyday life when computer dates click over to Jan. 1, 2000.

It's the other Y2K-related marketing tactic that continues to prove much dicier: playing to the fear that is prompting some Americans to stock up on food and other staples in advance of the new year. So far, most packaged-goods manufacturers have distanced themselves carefully from that part of the Y2K zeitgeist.

This double-faced Y2K card is an interesting one for many brand marketers because it provides such a rare combination of potential and peril. On the one hand, it's truly a once-in-a-millennium marketing opportunity. But on the other hand, a substantial minority of Americans still harbor some fears about what will happen upon the turn of the calendar on New Year's Eve.

"I even think that, at some low-grade level, anxieties about the turn of the millennium are affecting our society in lots of ways that we're only beginning to recognize, such as the strong retro trend in fashion and in the culture," said John Grace, executive director of Interbrand, the New York-based branding consultancy.

Campbell's Soup Co. illustrates the dilemma. The company has grabbed hold of the celebratory aspects of the occasion by enlisting Dick Clark a few weeks ago [September] to launch a Funniest Noodle Photo Contest. Contestants are supposed to submit snapshots of people eating noodles in a funny way. The winner will receive $10,000 and a five-day trip for four to the New Year's Eve festivities in Times Square. At the moment the Times Square Ball is about to drop for the last time in the 1900s, the winner's face also will appear on the famous Panasonic Astrovision screen that overlooks Times Square.

"We're not trying to diminish the Y2K issue, but we're focusing on what we think will be the fun of an event for the two million people who will be there and the people all over the world who will see it on TV," said a spokesman for Campbell's in Camden, N.J. "In terms of risk-reward, we're fairly confident there isn't a big downside to this."

Yet Campbell's is hedging its bets when it comes to the other side of the Y2K coin. As a priority for many consumers who are laying up extra stores in preparation for New Year's Day, soup sales quite naturally will get a big fourth-quarter boost. And the Campbell's spokesman conceded that some retailers have begun asking the company to put a dozen cans of its tomato and chicken-noodle soups in a big package that the stores can use in Y2K-related promotions.

But the spokesman said that the company isn't "looking to put out a Y2K alert" or a "panic-related" marketing program. "We've got other programs in place, frankly, and we're not going to derail those to do something that's just going to kind of drive [sales] to a point and then stop," he said.

Overall, anxiety levels of the American populace appear to be below where they were six months ago, when some top politicians, government officials, utility executives and others conceded that the efforts by companies and government agencies to correct the computer-based roots of the Y2K problem were lagging.

Along with reports of substantial progress on the technological front over the last several months have come the uneventful passage of several "preview" dates, such as Sept. 9 (9-9-99), that some analysts had feared would trip computer problems that might be a precursor to much worse difficulties on New Year's Day. Two-thirds of respondents to a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll in September said they anticipate only "minor problems" from Y2K.

Nevertheless, 23% of those polled said they were stocking up on canned goods, among other indicators that many Americans are taking precautions just in case. Pharmaceutical-marketing consultant Richard Fehring has said he believes the current quarter will produce the industry's biggest-ever results because of stocking. Some retailers have begun putting together Y2K-related merchandise displays as well.

"Those of us who have been working on the Y2K event for the past few years consider the date change to be largely a non-event," said Cathy Hotka, vice president for information technology of the National Retail Federation, Washington. "But those who matter most -- our customers -- may be troubled by it."

Thus, the NRF is partnering with Mastercard International to raise consumer awareness about the readiness efforts of American retailers and to provide contingency-planning guidance to merchants who may have gotten a late start. And the Food Marketing Institute, the Washington-based trade group for supermarket chains, has developed a brochure for distribution by retailers that explains what the food industry has been doing to prepare for Y2K.

"A lot of chains have been using them as bag stuffers to get the message out that they'll be ready and stores will be open for business on Jan. 1," said Todd Holtquist, an FMI spokesman. "Food retailers probably are the most prepared business for situations like this, where you may have a big need."

December holidays and expected high levels of New Year's Eve partying also will be driving strong fourth-quarter demand, Holtquist added.

By hitching appeals to New Year's Eve celebrations, some brand marketers are counting heavily on the party crowd to carry the day come Y2K. Kodak Corp., for example, has introduced a new version of its Kodak Max Flash disposable camera called Perfect for the Party. Loaded with 27 exposures, it will be highlighted by a newspaper-coupon distribution Dec. 26 and stand-alone displays during the last week of the year in many mass-market stores.

Meanwhile, Polaroid Corp. has unveiled a new "12:01" promotion that includes ads touting the significant picture-taking opportunities that will be presented by the first moments of the new year and including a promotion with Kmart Corp. that will save consumers $12.01 on a variety of Polaroid products.

"We just view it as a new platform for marketing the value proposition of Polaroid and the fun of it, and the role we can have in any celebration -- but especially on New Year's Eve," said Dave Lucas, vice president of marketing for North America for Cambridge, Mass.-based Polaroid.