INSIDE SCOOP: ICE CREAM SALES SURGE

BARBARA MURRAY

The International Ice Cream Association, in conjunction with ACNielsen, Schaumburg, Ill., found that the ice cream category has shown the "most robust growth" in more than four years, according to Susan Ruland, vice president, communications, for the IIAC.

The recent Ice Cream Market Research Project, which tracked data for supermarkets and supercenters, found that total supermarket and supercenter frozen dairy sales grew 2.6% in terms of dollars and 2.5% in terms of gallons from 1999 to 2000.

In addition, the total size of the frozen desserts category in 2000 was 660 million gallons (up 2.5%), and $4.6 billion (up 2.6%).

Further research uncovered the following results:

Ice cream gallon volume went up 3.6% last year. This segment's volume share increased almost one percentage point from 1999 and is now about 92% of all frozen dessert gallon sales. Dollar sales also showed strong growth, up 3.7% in 2000 vs. 1999.

Sorbet sales continued a downward trend for a third year in a row, and frozen yogurt continued its downward trend of the past few years. Frozen yogurt volume dropped 11%; dollars dropped 10.5%.

Most of the growth in ice cream can be attributed to the regular-fat ice cream segment, up almost 6% in dollar sales from 1999, 5% in volume sales. Nonfat ice cream continued to experience declines, while reduced-fat ice cream continued strong growth with gallon volume up 11%. (According to FDA labeling regulations, low-fat contains 3 grams or less of total fat per serving, which is 1/2 cup for ice cream. Reduced fat is at least a 25% reduction in total fat per serving.)

"So," Ruland explained, "If you're taking out fat, reduced-fat is usually the first gradation, low-fat is the next and nonfat is the last. Vanilla ice cream at 10% butterfat has 7 grams of fat per serving."

A general trend shows consumers moving away from the nonfat products and growth in the light and reduced-fat products (which aren't quite as sparse in fat).

Volume shares of the various ice cream products in 2000 breaks out like this: Regular has 87% of the category, nonfat has 2.4%, low-fat has 3.7%, light has 5.7% and reduced-fat has 1.4%.

Superpremium ice cream (by price) continues to enjoy double-digit growth -- up 16.3% in dollar sales vs. 1999. Premium and superpremium together now account for more than 60% of total ice cream dollars.

When categorizing ice cream by price level, in 2000, regular-price has 51.8% volume share, economy 3.2%, superpremium 3.3% and premium 41.7%. Superpremium volume grew 18% in 2000; premium volume sales were up 1.2%.

Private label suffered losses across all frozen dairy categories in 2000, except frozen novelties, where private-label sales were flat. Branded ice cream enjoyed a gallon growth of 6.3% for the year.

Frozen novelties experienced a great year: a 5.4% gain in dollar sales and a volume gain of 2.8%, the first such volume increase in two years.

Total frozen novelty sales (included in the total frozen dessert number above) is $1.9 billion (up 5.4%); 12-count package volume is 557 million (up 2.8%).

The big novelty winners for 2000 were ice cream sandwiches (up 7% in dollar sales and 5.5% in volume), ice cream cones (up 12% dollar, 13% volume) and non-premium bars (up 12% dollar, 6% volume).

The novelty slow-movers were fruit juice bars (up 0.6% dollar, down 3.4% volume) and premium ice cream bars (up 2% in dollar, down 0.4% in volume). Neither yogurt novelties or push-up tubes did well, and together these comprised only about 4% of the category.

Hot ice cream flavors included candy flavors, probably spurred by numerous cobranded launches in 2000. Fruit and nut flavors also did well in 2000.