Grocery food prices settle into more familiar territory in October

After matching a high for the year, grocery food prices settled back into a more familiar pattern in October, according to the latest Consumer Price Index data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The index for food at home remained flat in October, with only a 0.1% increase, despite five of the six major grocery store food group indexes rising compared to the previous month.

In September, grocery food prices increased by 0.4%, the highest jump since January, following a series of relatively flat months, which included a 0.2% decrease in April.

Bread prices rose the most in October, climbing 1.9%, while cereals and bakery products, as well as dairy and related products, both saw increases of 1%. Fruits and vegetables and nonalcoholic beverages rose by 0.4%, but the meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index dropped by 1.2%, with the index for eggs falling 6.4% for the month.

Overall, the food index, which includes food away from home, increased by 0.2% in October.

This news follows the Federal Reserve's announcement in October that inflation has reached its lowest point since 2021, dropping to near pre-pandemic levels.

Several grocers have recently lowered food prices in anticipation of the Thanksgiving holiday.

Aldi was the first to announce a turkey deal last month, offering a meal for 10 people for under $47.

Walmart introduced a meal package that includes a 10- to 16-pound turkey and 29 items, serving eight people for less than $7 per person and Sam's Club plans to serve 10 for under $10 per person. 

Meijer unveiled a full Thanksgiving meal for four to six people for around $37, while Target is offering a $20 package (down $5 from last year) for four people. Dollar General and Giant Eagle also announced ways for shoppers to save during Thanksgiving.

According to U.S. Department of Agriculture and BLS data, turkey prices are down by as much as 11% year over year. Ham prices are projected to drop by 2.5%, and the cost of potatoes is expected to decrease by 3.5%. Apples (down 13%), cranberries (down 5%), and frozen pies (down 0.7%) are also more affordable.

“The food industry is rising to the occasion to help shoppers manage their grocery budgets this holiday season,” said Andy Harig, vice president of Tax, Trade, Sustainability, and Policy Development at FMI—The Food Industry Association, in a statement.