Thanksgiving shoppers want traditional, at a discount

A new report from consumer behavior research firm Circana revealed that most consumers will celebrate Thanksgiving with their families and follow the usual traditions, but they are looking for deals at the grocery store.

The prices of side dishes (an increase of 4% year over year), pies (increase of 2%), and baking goods (increase of 3%) have all gone up since 2023, while the price of the main entrée and beverages have dropped 2%, Circana reported.

However, the research showed that 67% of consumers will change their shopping habits to save this year. In fact, 37% will buy more items that are on sale or linked to a coupon or promotion, and 22% will buy more private-label brands than name brands.

Furthermore, 38% will look for Thanksgiving meal items before the holiday week and will make spot purchases of certain items if they see a sale or have a coupon, the report said.

Circana predicted grocers will put items on sale the week before Thanksgiving, but discounts won’t be significant. In 2023, the largest promotional lift occurred the week ending Nov. 12, leading up to the holiday. Yet the size of the discount, or promotion depth, was not much different from the rest of the year—26% the week ending Nov. 12 versus the average of 21% for the year.

“Thanksgiving is a huge opportunity for manufacturers and retailers to create holiday magic for their shoppers,” said Sally Lyons Wyatt, global EVP and chief advisor for Consumer Goods and Foodservice Insights for Chicago-based Circana. “Answer the call for traditional holiday staples but step it up with inspiration for new recipes and new traditions.”

Grocery retailers should also focus their efforts on solving needs that help bring the meal together faster with less mess, allowing cooks to spend more time outside the kitchen. This will encourage shoppers to spend more, according to Darren Seifer, industry advisor, Consumer Goods & Foodservice Insights for Circana. Seifer also said grocers should create more value by showing consumers what to do with leftovers using easy recipes for the days following Thanksgiving.

Last year, shoppers took advantage of entrée sale items the week before the holiday (up 599% in sales when sold on promotion). Side dishes (up 269%) and pies (up 241%) also performed well.

Spending on gifts for the host will also be strong. The Circana report revealed that shoppers will spend an average of $143 on liquor or wine in 2024, versus $125 last year, while $167 will be spent on food or beverages, down from $170 in 2023. About one in five respondents said they would purchase a food or beverage gift for those hosting Thanksgiving.

Aldi, Meijer, Target, Walmart, Sam’s Club, Dollar General, Giant Eagle, and others have introduced Thanksgiving meal deals.

The price of food also remains stable. The Consumer Price Index for food at home remained flat in October, with only a 0.1% increase, despite five of the six major grocery store food group indexes rising compared to the previous month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In September, grocery food prices increased by 0.4%, the highest jump since January, following a series of relatively flat months, including a 0.2% decrease in April.