SNAP likely to take a hit under Trump

Big changes could be coming for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which faces new scrutiny as the incoming Trump Administration searches for ways to slash the federal budget to offset tax cuts in 2025, according to a story in the Washington Post.

That could be a problem not only for the roughly 34 million SNAP recipients, but also for grocery retailers across the board that collect billions in revenue through the program. 

The federal government spent an estimated $119.4 billion on SNAP benefits in fiscal year 2022. Additionally, $5.5 billion was allotted for administrative and other expenses associated with the program, which is administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food and Nutrition Service, according to a report by the Pew Research Center. 

The Pew report noted that SNAP is one of the federal government’s largest social welfare programs, comparable in size to Medicare, which cost $747.2 billion in FY22; Medicaid at $591.9 billion; veterans’ benefits at $161.2 billion; and unemployment compensation at $33.1 billion.

The Washington Post story notes that such entitlement programs, particularly SNAP and Medicaid, could see significant changes in the coming years, such as spending caps. 

Speaking with off-the-record sources close to the administration, the Washington Post notes that discussions on program cuts and spending limits are preliminary but focus on Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, which are set to expire at the end of 2025. 

Trump has promised to extend the tax cuts, which is estimated to add $4 trillion to the national debt, which currently stands at $36 billion. 

Republicans are already looking closely at Medicaid and SNAP cuts. Rep. Jodey Arrington, a Texas Republican who serves as chair of the House Budget Committee, said last week that a work requirement for Medicaid could net $100 billion, and another $160 billion could come from requiring more frequent check-ins on Medicaid eligibility, according to the Washington Post article. 

Lawmakers are also considering stripping the president of the authority to increase SNAP benefits, a power originally granted the executive office in the 2017 farm bill. 

The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a nonpartisan research institute, noted in a report released in September that the House Republican Study Committee, a conservative caucus of Republicans legislators, and the Republican House Budget Committee both call for massive cuts to SNAP over the next decade. 

The Republican Study Committee calls for a roughly 22% cut to SNAP benefits and rescinding the federal government’s 2021 Thrifty Food Plan, “which adjusted SNAP benefits to reflect the cost of a healthy diet based on today’s dietary guidelines and food consumption patterns.”

“This cut would affect 41 million people participating in SNAP, formerly known as food stamps. (HBC and Project 2025 also sharply criticize the Thrifty Food Plan increase but are not clear about rescinding it.),” the study noted. “And Project 2025 calls for gutting summer food assistance programs that children in families with low incomes rely on when school is out, which could include the new Summer EBT program that is expected to provide grocery benefits to more than 21 million children this summer.”

Arrington said in the Washington Post article that streamlining entitlement programs would help preserve the benefits and that Republicans do not aim to penalize recipients. 

Newsweek reports that Republicans have also discussed limiting the kinds of foods SNAP recipients could purchase with their benefits or following an earlier Trump proposal from 2017 to create “harvest boxes” that would replace an estimated 40% of SNAP benefits with a government-funded food delivery box including only non-perishable items. 

That proposal, which was never enacted, was opposed by the National Grocers Association. In late 2017, the NGA sent a letter to Capitol Hill, urging lawmakers to oppose the plan. 

“History demonstrates that when the government doles out food, not only is it inefficient and more expensive to the taxpayer, but low-income populations also end up hungry and malnourished,” the NGA wrote. 

While SNAP beneficiaries have the most to lose from a reduction in the program, grocers across the country also are likely to see a substantial hit to the bottom line. Recipients spend an average of $740 a month on groceries using SNAP, according to a recent study by data analytics firm Numerator. 

Numerator’s SNAP Shopper Scorecard, released in October, showed that more than a quarter (25.8%) of SNAP dollars are spent at Walmart. Kroger was the next biggest recipient, collecting 9.1%, followed by Albertsons at 6.5%, Costco at 6.2%, Sam’s Club at 3.8%, Ahold Delhaize at 3.4%, 7-Eleven at 2.9%, Dollar General and Publix each at 2.6%, and Aldi at 2.1%.