Trump’s tariffs expected to have ‘slow but modest’ impact on fuel pricesTrump’s tariffs expected to have ‘slow but modest’ impact on fuel prices

While the national average price of gasoline has dropped 3.5 cents compared to a week ago, there has been “little meaningful change over the past week,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. However, President Trump’s tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods could raise fuel prices, he said.

De Haan said he expects a slow but modest impact on fuel prices, particularly in the Great Lakes, Midwest, Rockies and Northeast United States, which are markets that rely heavily on Canadian crude oil or refined product imports from Canada.

“While, on paper, tariffs on Canadian energy could have a significant impact on fuel prices, a prolonged trade war could weaken global economies, reducing demand and partially offsetting the effects of tariffs,” he said. 

While GasBuddy predicted modest effects, the National Association of Convenience Stores (NACS) stated “deep concern with the potential imposition.”

Global Partners, Waltham, Massachusetts, is closely monitoring the potential effects, Reid Lamberty, senior communications advisor, told CSP.

“As it relates to fuel, we have proactively brought in additional supply to our Northeast terminals and are working continuously with our suppliers to ensure adequate inventories,” he said. “We feel we are in a good position to serve our wholesale customers through this period of uncertainty. The full impact of tariffs on consumer prices and purchasing behavior remains to be seen.”

NACS, plus the National Association of Truck Stop Owners (NATSO), Society of Independent Gasoline Marketers of America (SIGMA), Energy Marketers of America (EMA), National Energy and Fuels Institute (NEFI) and National Propane Gas Association (NPGA) signed a joint industry letter to the Trump administration regarding oil tariffs that was sent to the White House and Treasury Department.

The letter stated concerns with the potential tariffs on crude oil, other imported fuels and international trade.

Imported Crude Oil and Its Affects on Gas Prices

Imported crude oil is necessary to meet the demand for refined petroleum products like gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil and propane, according to NACS. The typically light crude oil produced in the United States is not readily interchangeable with the typically heavy crude oil available abroad. A supply of both light and heavy crude is essential component of America’s energy mix.

After declining for much of the last week, oil prices jumped Monday in response to Trump’s tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, raising concerns over supply disruptions and an escalating trade war, according to GasBuddy. 

In early Monday trading, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, benchmark for the U.S. oil market, was up $2.09 per barrel to $74.62, up from last Monday’s $74.06 per barrel start. Brent crude oil was also jumping in early Monday trade, rising $1.46 per barrel to $77.13, but still down from last Monday’s $77.93 per barrel start, according to GasBuddy.

It’s likely to be a volatile week for oil prices after Trump enacted significant tariffs, with Canada suggesting that it’s preparing to escalate and coordinate additional tariffs of its own, said GasBuddy.

NACS stated that levying tariffs on crude oil and other petroleum product imports would increase the price of gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil and propane for millions of American consumers.

Cost of Consumer Goods

Beyond the direct cost of these fuels for consumers, higher petroleum product prices also impact the cost of goods and services across virtually all sectors of the economy. If diesel prices rise, so do the prices of nearly everything that Americans buy. Likewise, enterprises that rely on heating oil or propane at their facilities will see their overhead costs rise, furthering the upward pressure on consumer prices.

Today's Fuel Prices

The national average price for gas stands at $3.04 per gallon, according to GasBuddy. Compared to a month ago, the national average is down 1.4 cents, and compared to a year ago, it has fallen 10.3 cents. The national average price of diesel has decreased 2.4 cents in the last week and stands at $3.63 per gallon. 

Below is more detail on the current fuel price trends from GasBuddy.

Gas

The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists stood at $2.99 per gallon when GasBuddy reported it on Monday, unchanged from last week, followed by $2.89, $2.79, $3.09, and $3.19 rounding out the top five most common prices.

The median U.S. gas price is $2.94 per gallon, down 5 cents from last week and about 10 cents lower than the national average.

The top 10% of stations in the country average $4.19 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $2.54 per gallon.

The states with the lowest average prices are Oklahoma ($2.63), Mississippi ($2.64) and Texas ($2.66).

The states with the highest average prices are Hawaii ($4.50), California ($4.39) and Washington ($3.88).

The biggest weekly changes include Florida (down 14.6 cents), Ohio (down 12.6 cents), South Carolina (down 10.5 cents), Arizona ( up 10.2 cents) and Maryland (down 9.2 cents).

Diesel

The most common U.S. diesel price stood at $3.69 per gallon, up 10 cents from last week, followed by $3.59, $3.39, $3.49 and $3.29, rounding out the top five most common prices, according to GasBuddy.

The median U.S. diesel price is $3.50 per gallon, down 9 cents from last week and about 13 cents lower than the national average.

Diesel prices at the top 10% of stations in the country average $4.41 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $3.10 per gallon.

The states with the lowest average diesel prices are Oklahoma ($3.13), Arkansas ($3.28) and Mississippi ($3.29).

The states with the highest average diesel prices are Hawaii ($5.32), California ($4.93) and Washington ($4.32).

Biggest weekly changes include Texas (down 8.9 cents), Utah (up 8.3 cents), Idaho (up 7.5 cents), South Carolina (down 6.4 cents) and North Carolina (down 5.7 cents).

Oil

After declining for much of the last week, oil prices jumped Monday in response to Trump’s tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, raising concerns over supply disruptions and an escalating trade war, according to GasBuddy. 

In early Monday trade, WTI crude was up $2.09 per barrel to $74.62, up from last Monday’s $74.06 per barrel start. Brent crude oil was also jumping in early Monday trade, rising $1.46 per barrel to $77.13, but still down from last Monday’s $77.93 per barrel start.

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This story was originally featured on CSP Daily News, a sister publication of Supermarket News.