Grocery food prices are expected to fall in 2024 and 2025

A new report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture indicates that the price of food will continue to decelerate throughout the year.

In 2024, prices for all food are predicted to increase 2.2%, with food-at-home prices projected to go up just 1%.

Looking beyond this year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture is forecasting the price for all food to increase 2% in 2025. Food-at-home prices could increase 0.7%.

The agency’s Food Price Outlet tracks and forecasts the annual percentage change in prices by averaging observed and forecast prices for all months in the current year compared to all months in the previous year.

The Food Price Outlook forecasting methods are based entirely on statistical models that are fitted to recent trends in the data.

The Consumer Price Index for food at home from May 2024 to June 2024 was up 3% compared to June 2023.

From May to June 2024, prices rose for seven food-at-home categories and dropped for six while two categories remained stable.

For June 2024, prices for four food-at-home categories were lower year over year: fish and seafood, dairy products, fresh fruits, and fresh vegetables.

Meanwhile, beef and veal prices increased by 0.5% in June, marking the fourth straight month of rise.

Dairy product prices rose by 0.5% in June but were 0.1% lower than June 2023. Prices for fats and oils increased 1% and were 4% higher year over year.

Retail egg prices fell for the third month in a row, decreasing by 0.8%.

Prices also decreased for fresh fruits (2.6%) and the cost for sugar and sweets were down 0.1% in June.

However, sugar and sweets, nonalcoholic beverages, which were stable in terms of cost in June, and beef and veal are predicted to outpace their historical average growth rate for 2024. Sugar and sweets prices are expected to go up 3.4%, nonalcoholic beverages are projected to increase 2.3%, and beef and veal could go up by as much as 4.4%.

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According to a new report from the Department of Agriculture, foods prices overall are expected to decelerate for the rest of 2024 and into 2025. Is that happening in your store? Comment below or email the SN staff at [email protected].