GLP-1 drugs are ‘the beginning of a revolution,’ new report says

GLP-1 drugs initially used to treat diabetes—and now also are used to help lose weight—are “having a profound impact on how consumers allocate their food and beverage and nonfood spending,” a new report from Chicago-based market research firm Circana said.

Circana added that it believes the industry is at an “inflection point” in how these drugs, which include Ozempic, Wegovy and Saxenda, will shape spending patterns in the future.

Since arriving on the market in 2005 for the treatment of Type 2 diabetes, Circana said, the class of drugs known as glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1s) have “upended diabetes treatment and revolutionized how doctors and consumers approach weight management.”

These medications are designed “to mimic the effects of a naturally occurring hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and slows digestion, which promotes the feeling of satiety,” Circana added, noting that the first GLP-1 medication was approved for weight loss in 2014.

Receipt Panel Data

To better understand the opportunity this will create for consumer-packaged goods (CPG) food and beverage categories, nonfood CPG companies, foodservice operators and beyond, Circana studied receipt panel data from consumers using GLP-1 medications specifically for weight loss.

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Circana studied spending patterns of consumers before they initiated a GLP-1, while they were on it and after they discontinued the medication.

The findings make up Circana’s new report Early Days of a Revolution: How GLP-1s Are Already Changing Consumer Spending. Circana on Jan. 8 discussed the report during its webinar The Ripple Effect of GLP-1s, Today and In the Future.

“GLP-1 drugs are really one part of an even bigger cultural trend,” DJ Joyner, consultant, Complete Consumer, at Circana, said during the webinar. “We're seeing consumers become more educated about their overall health. They’re increasingly showing up to retail stores and restaurants seeking out healthy food and drink options to reach wellness goals, and as these drugs continue to become more mainstream and more part of consumer consciousness, retailers and brands really have to be looking at GLP-1 as somewhat of a leading indicator of this larger cultural phenomenon, and looking for ways to innovate and reach this growing population of consumers who are looking for healthy benefits from the products they buy.”

Joyner shared the change in monthly sales during the first year of active GLP-1 use in various outlets: 

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The report said that on average, households with GLP-1 weight-loss users typically spend more on CPG food, beverages and foodservice before they even initiate use of a GLP-1 than nonuser households, a trend that continues even in the first year of GLP-1 use. Within the first year and beyond, GLP-1 weight-loss users change their spending habits significantly.

For example:

Food and beverage purchases: GLP-1 weight-loss users decrease their total dollar spend on food and beverages relative to non-users during their first three months on the medication, but by the end of year one, their food and beverage spending more closely matches their pre-medication baseline.

“We saw a decrease in relative household spending on foods that GLP-1 users are recommended to avoid, including spicy foods, fatty proteins and beverages with added sugar,” Circana said. “Conversely, spending on foods that support GLP-1 balance―including vegetables, eggs and nuts―increased compared to purchases among non-GLP-1 users.”

There also was an uptick in sales of gum, mints and non-chocolate candy that provide relief from side effects of GLP-1s, including bad breath and dry mouth. In total, spending on CPG food and beverage among total GLP-1 users declined 1.1 points during year one relative to their pre-purchase baseline.

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Nonfood CPG: GLP-1 weight-loss users also increased spending on drinkware and water filtration devices relative to non-users, which could be driven by hydration recommendations. Sales of gastrointestinal products increased among GLP-1 users seeking relief from side effects of the medication. At the same time, Circana saw a relative decrease in spending during the first year of use on sleep remedies, analgesics, home healthcare products and foot care products, due to improved overall health. The ripple effect on spending in nonfood categories also showed a commitment to total well-being, with increased spending also on wearables such as fitness trackers and home medical devices, apparel and cosmetics.

Department shifts: Circana saw some key changes in the departments GLP-1 weight-loss users shopped. The biggest shift was in frozen foods, where GLP-1 weight loss users’ monthly spending fell 3 points from their pre-use baseline during their first year on the drug. Sales of center-store beverages also declined in the first three months. GLP-1 users increased their spending in the produce and deli departments within the first year and indicated in surveys they were seeking foods with added benefits such as protein, and foods with less sugar, salt and carbohydrates.

Foodservice spending: GLP-1 weight-loss users initially skew their spending toward quick-serve restaurants (QSRs). However, over the course of their first year on the medication, they shift their spending toward grocery foodservice, casual dining and midscale restaurants. Convenience channel foodservice realized the largest dollar sales decline during the period Circana studied.

“A deeper understanding of GLP-1 medications and their roles in weight loss has unlocked new opportunities to enhance the food, beverage and nonfood products that support consumers’ overall well-being,” said Sally Lyons Wyatt, global executive vice president and chief advisor, Circana.

Critical to Develop Strategies

Wyatt added that as accessibility, availability and affordability of these medications improve, “it will become critical for companies to develop strategies that support consumers on their health journeys. For consumers needing help with getting to optimal GLP-1 levels, working with a medical professional to determine the right mix of medications, supplements, and/or CPG products will remain vital in managing their health over the long term.”

Joyner added, “As we see more and more consumers adopting these drugs for weight-loss motivations, it's important to recognize that a lot of these weight-loss focused users are going to have specific goals around their weight management. They’re likely to be taking these drugs for shorter durations, so any consumer-facing company that’s adjusting product and marketing strategies in response to the rise in usage rates we’re seeing for these drugs should also be taking into account that a larger underlying user base means that we'll be seeing a growing number of consumers who are also stopping and ceasing these drugs over time as well.”

How To Respond

In addressing how retailers and food and beverage companies should respond, Circana said that while some consumers will resume their pre-GLP-1 purchase habits when they cease treatment, “for many others, varying forms of the medication, supplements and CPG food and beverage will play critical roles in how individuals manage their conditions.”

Some areas of opportunity include:

Product innovation: Develop and promote products that align with the dietary needs of GLP-1 users, Circana said. “This includes high-protein, low-calorie or portion control options that support satiety and blood sugar regulation,” the company said. “Foods rich in fiber, as well as vegetables, eggs and nuts, can help boost GLP-1 levels naturally.

Educational campaigns: Educate consumers about the benefits of GLP-1-friendly foods and the importance of balanced nutrition. “Highlighting the functional benefits of certain food categories can help consumers make informed choices that support their weight loss goals,” Circana said. “In-store and online, retailers can leverage their dietitians, retail media networks, and apps to promote products and services to support GLP-1 users’ weight-loss goals.”

Personalized solutions: Offer personalized meal plans and product recommendations tailored to the unique needs of GLP-1 users. “This can include subscription-based services that deliver GLP-1-friendly meals and snacks directly to consumers’ homes,” Circana said. “In addition to identifying their target audience and deploying personalized messages, retailers can take a page from the allergen-free playbook and partner with manufacturers to create a dedicated section of the store devoted to products that align with GLP-1s.”

Collaborations with healthcare providers: Partner with healthcare providers to create comprehensive wellness programs that integrate GLP-1 medications with dietary and lifestyle changes, Circana said, adding, “This holistic approach can enhance the effectiveness of weight-loss efforts and improve overall well-being.

Accessibility and affordability: Ensure that GLP-1-friendly products are widely available and affordable. “This can involve working with retailers to offer promotions and discounts on products that support GLP-1 users’ dietary needs,” Circana said.

“I could not do this presentation without noting just the prevalence of obesity in America today, with 40.3% of the population suffering from obesity,” Wyatt said. “Diabetes is going to remain a high major health risk for America, with the prevalence of diabetes increasing by 54% between 2015 and 2030, so these medications are critical to try and make those numbers not become reality. The conditions bode well for expanded use of GLP-1s.”

She added, “I think this is the beginning of a revolution, and how you engage and how you attack it is going to really set the stage for your future growth.

“It's not just about GLP-1s, although that is the topic today,” she said. “This is all about the well-being journey that many consumers are adopting not just in the U.S. but around the world.”

Circana conducted a survey of receipt panel participants to identify current or previous users of GLP-1 medications for weight loss to understand the effect of GLP-1s on consumer spending patterns. Circana compared purchase activity among GLP-1 weight loss user households compared to that of non-GLP-1 user households using a monthly per-household consumption index. The consumption index was calculated by dividing the monthly spend per household among GLP-1 weight loss users by the monthly spend per household among non-GLP-1 users. The analysis covered 25 months of purchase data from June 2022 to June 2024 among survey respondents who submitted at least 10 receipts per month.

This story was originally featured on CSP Daily News, a sister publication of Supermarket News.