Restaurant spending reaches new high compared to grocery shopping

Restaurants’ market share was 56.4% in October, with groceries and supermarkets making up the rest, according to data released Friday by the U.S. Census Bureau.

“This is a new all-time high for the domestic restaurant industry in this regard,” Mark Kalinowski, president and CEO of Kalinowski Equity Research, said in an analyst’s note. “The year-over-year gain was about 40 basis points, marking slight sequential acceleration from September 2024’s 30 basis-point market-share rise.”

Retail sales for September were also revised upward, the Census Bureau said.

“After the uptick we witnessed in September—which was later revised even higher—the U.S. Census Department of Commerce reported more good news in October,” said Chip West, retail and consumer behavior expert with Chicago-based RRD. “Retail sales increased 0.4% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, highlighting continued healthy consumer spending.”

West noted that many businesses were imposing return-to-office requirements, which were “expected to positively impact the restaurant category, which saw a slight bump in October,” West said.

“Dining establishments, which have faced significant challenges due to the loss of weekday foot traffic since the COVID-19 pandemic, are likely to benefit from an increased presence of in-office workers,” West said. “This resurgence in workplace activity could help drive weekday lunch and happy hour traffic, providing a much-needed boost to these businesses.”

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As the winter holidays approach in November and December, West said restaurants with catering options, “will certainly have an opportunity to promote and attract the number of consumers that are planning to host holiday celebrations this year.”

Kalinowski noted that while restaurant same-store sales gains slowed noticeably through the end of the third quarter, “it appears perhaps a little more likely that the worst is over.”

Kalinowski also said the restaurant industry would begin to lap easier same-store sales comparisons in 2025.

He said it was important to note that overall spending on food and beverages did not grow in January-October 2024 as fast as it was growing in the same periods in the past three years.

This article was initially featured on Nation's Restaurant News, a sister publication of Supermarket News.