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Category update: Meat cooking with fireCategory update: Meat cooking with fire

The category’s surge continues, and seafood is showing life

Bill Wilson, Senior editor at Supermarket News

February 19, 2025

4 Min Read
An overhead shot of packaged meat in a grocery store.
Beef saw a notable 7.9% increase in pound sales in January.Shutterstock

Beef remained inflation-proof in January, with the product category proving itself in a significant way to start the year.

Beef saw a notable 7.9% increase in pound sales in January, with a strong contribution from grinds, according to Circana data for the five weeks ending Feb. 2 in the MULO+ universe. However, the last days of December leading up to New Year’s Eve were included in January’s data, which created a certain degree of false-positive, but it was still a solid month for the meat department. Together, beef and lamb led the category to an overall January pound gain of 4.5%.

The pound boost occurred while meat prices continued to rise. Fresh meat prices increased by 5.6% year over year, and overall, all cuts and kinds were up by 4.2%.

January inflation rose 2.8% year over year, primarily driven by record-high egg prices. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for January 2025 showed a decline from 73.2 in December to 71.1, marking the first decrease in six months. Consumers expressed concern about the labor market and the potential for higher prices due to tariffs on imports.

The January Circana primary shopper survey showed that consumer price perceptions for grocery-type items remained unchanged, with 84% believing prices continued to rise.

How grocery categories performed in January

  • Meat🐑: We can’t overlook the role of fresh lamb in the meat sector’s strong January. Fresh lamb pound sales rose by 10.3% year over year, topping the 7.9% increase recorded by fresh beef. Processed chicken and hot dogs led the processed meat category with year-over-year pound gains of 15.5% and 10.3%, respectively

  • Seafood🐟: Seafood also got off to a strong start this year, with all three categories—fresh, frozen, and canned—showing year-over-year increases in pounds. Despite a 2.2% price increase in January, total fresh seafood showed a 0.5% rise in pounds sold compared to January 2024, with finfish leading the way (+1.7%). Ambient seafood performed slightly better, with a 1.1% increase in units sold year over year, and ambient tuna led all categories with a 3.5% spike. Frozen seafood also finished above water for January, with a 0.4% year-over-year increase

  • Produce🫐: Produce had some victories in January, such as frozen fruit and vegetables showing an 8.1% year-over-year increase in units sold. However, the category was flat in terms of pounds, and shelf-stable fruit declined in both units and pounds. Mangoes, berries, kiwis, and oranges were the top performers for fresh fruit in January

  • Bakery🥐: Bakery continues to be a challenge for grocers. Unit sales were down in January. Perimeter bakery showed a 0.4% increase year over year in units sold, but aisle bakery fell by 2.6%.

  • Refrigerated and frozen🍳: The price of eggs has caused panic among many consumers, but refrigerated food still recorded a 3% increase year over year in units sold. Cottage cheese had a 14.5% increase in units sold compared to a year ago, and whipped toppings (+8.4%) and yogurt (+7.5%) were also popular buys. Frozen processed meat/poultry was the go-to item in the freezer section as unit sales increased by 6.8% year over year

  • Deli😃: Deli-prepared food sales continued their growth pattern in January. The category registered a 2.5% increase in units sold versus a year ago, with prepared meats showing an 8.2% gain. The deli department was up 1.9% in units sold year over year in January. Deli entertaining showed a solid 4.3% increase in pounds sold, including a 15.2% bump in trays. Deli meat, however, suffered a 6% drop in pounds sold in January. Service meat was down 10.1% year over year

  • Plant-based meat alternatives❌: After several months of single-digit declines in dollars, units, and volume, plant-based meat alternatives showed some momentum in January with double-digit year-over-year increases in dollars, units, and volume. The category is still struggling, as refrigerated plant-based alternatives suffered a 22.9% drop in dollar sales. Pound sales in January fell to 3.1 million, after reaching a high of 62 million pounds in 2020

What else did we see?

  • The top frozen species was shrimp, with a 2.8% gain. The price of shrimp also dropped 1.8% compared to last year

  • Mangoes registered an astonishing 162.9% year-over-year increase in pound sales, while kiwi saw a 34% increase. Melons, however, dropped by 19.6%

  • Croissants led perimeter (up 6.3% in units year over year) and aisle (up 13.9%). Specialty desserts had the biggest decline, with a 16% drop in units sold year over year

  • Frozen turkey (+14.5% in units sold), frozen chicken (+11.6%), and frozen processed chicken (+8.6%) were the leaders in the frozen food section

  • Deli cheese was the top performer for the month, as pounds sold jumped 5.9% year over year, led by specialty cheese (+10.2%)

  • Ground veal outperformed grinds in January, with a 15.9% increase in pound sales year over year, but ground lamb saw a stark 29.7% decrease

About the Author

Bill Wilson

Senior editor at Supermarket News

Bill Wilson is the senior editor at Supermarket News, covering all things grocery and retail. He has been a journalist in the B2B industry for 25 years. He has received two Robert F. Boger awards for his work as a journalist in the infrastructure industry and has over 25 editorial awards total in his career. He graduated cum laude from Southern Illinois University at Carbondale with a major in broadcast communications.

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