Superstore traffic dips but crushes pre-pandemic levels

Shoppers have curtailed their spending at mass merchandise stores like Walmart, Target, Costco, BJ’s and Sam’s Club in the first half of 2023, but the big-box retailers might be through the worst of it, according to new insights from data analytics company Placer.ai.  

A blog post released this week by the firm showed that Costco—whose shoppers have the highest median household income in the category—has enjoyed the highest foot traffic for most of the year, revealing “the chain’s ability to pick up members even during more challenging periods, when visitor frequency was offset by mission-driven shopping.” 

May was the only month Costco experienced a year-over-year decline, dropping 1.6% from the previous year and mirroring the decline seen at Sam’s Club for the month. That same month, BJ’s foot traffic plummeted by 8.2%, while Walmart and Target dropped 5.5% and 3.6%, respectively. 

Walmart, which has the lowest median income shoppers, was the second highest performer in terms of foot traffic.  

“The relatively positive visit trends for both Costco and Walmart—which cater to consumers at opposing ends of the income spectrum—indicates that there is room for multiple retail business models to succeed in the current environment,” Placer.ai noted. 

While year-over-year performance has varied in 2023, the superstores—with the exception of Walmart, due to the ongoing consolidation of its locations since 2019—are still performing at much higher levels over the last four months, compared to foot traffic seen pre-pandemic.  

Target, BJ’s and Sam’s Club experienced year-over-year declines of 1%, 3% and 1%, respectively, in July, but when compared to visits four years ago (Yo4Y), their numbers were up 7.9%, 6.7% and 8.5%, according to Placer.ai. 

“These Yo4Y visit metrics indicate that even the superstores with slight YoY declines are still well-positioned to bounce back once the wider economic situation stabilizes,” the report stated. “In fact, even Walmart—the only superstore analyzed with Yo4Y dips—is seeing significant visit increases in certain states, indicating that America’s largest retailer still has growth potential and that the wider superstore category is still very attractive to 2023 consumers.” 

Walmart had its best results in the Northeast states of Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont.

Foot traffic rates at Walmart stores in those states have outperformed 2022 levels every month this year, except for May, “which was a challenging month for retail in the U.S. across sectors,” the report noted. 

“Walmart's visit increases in the northeast suggests that, even as the retailer closes stores in some parts of the country, the company still has room for growth in other regions—and that superstores will remain an indispensable part of the wider retail landscape in 2024 and beyond,” the report concluded.