Grocery personalization: if you’re not doing it, you should beGrocery personalization: if you’re not doing it, you should be

Shoppers, especially loyal ones, want to feel like their grocery store is taking care of their needs. And several sessions at the 2025 National Grocers Association’s annual meeting in Las Vegas this week addressed how grocers can up their game (via tech, marketing, and AI) to meet those needs. 

When it comes to meeting needs, Walmart has only upped its grocery game since the pandemic. Not only has the retailer made online ordering virtually seamless, but its success in delivery and curbside pickup has caught the attention of more affluent and younger shoppers.

But independents should also get a piece of that pie. During a session on the digital future of grocery on Monday, Randy Crimmins, CEO of grocery ecommerce solutions company Mercatus, said he believes now is the time for regional supermarkets and independent operators to connect and control the customer journey to drive success both in-store and online through elevated omni-commerce.

“It’s contextual commerce, but it’s about being connected,” said Crimmins, “and it’s about being personal and meeting the shopping needs of every one of your shoppers within your digital experience.”

Retailers need to curate the shopping experience down to an individual level based on the persona or behavior of each shopper. Dynamic content containers can be pushed to any website or app screen, carrying information about promotions and product recommendations, Crimmins said. These can enable suggestions for products or purchase activity in real time based on the context of the shopper.

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A smart, robust search capability on a website is also a must. Crimmins said over 30% of customers navigate a grocer’s website based solely on search.

“They don’t go to the top and navigate through dropdown menus,” Crimmins said. “They just go to search.”

During Tuesday’s session on using data and AI to drive higher spend and more frequent shopping, James Councill of ECRS talked about how AI-powered machine learning can also personalize the shopper’s experience on a grocer’s website or app.

Since machine learning knows the shopper’s purchasing behaviors, whether online or in-store, once the user logs in, AI can provide recommended offers, coupons, and promotions tailored to the person’s buying preferences.

At the store, shoppers can take advantage of coupons related to a transaction and use them at checkout. Machine learning can also recommend coupons for the shopper’s next visit.

Shoppers also look for rewards during their digital journey, with younger consumers especially attracted to gamification. Grocers need to tune into both, Councill said. Purchase frequency clubs drive repeat activity over time and can be set up and executed within an app. Continuity programs allow shoppers to build rewards over time rather than just on a single transaction.

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Engaging with customers goes beyond the website and app. Emails and text messages can also help execute campaigns and drive loyalty.

Smart e-circulars can be created, involving AI-powered machine learning recommendation systems to send personalized emails to customers with recommended coupons, offers, and promotions that are relevant to the customer’s buying needs. These digital circulars must also engage with the customers.

“We’re really seeing a shift from this mass marketing approach to shopper personalization,” said Councill, who is the loyalty and promotions business unit manager at ECRS, which specializes in point-of-sale systems and retail solutions.

How grocers should navigate the Trump administration

With a new administration in the White House, many grocers are wondering what they will face in the coming months, especially in light of shifting tariff policies and the proposed mass deportation of undocumented immigrants.

During a talk on Monday about the current grocery market, John Ross, CEO of the Independent Retailers Alliance, said he doesn’t believe that talks of tariffs related to products from China, Mexico, and Canada will amount to much, nor does he think deportations will impact farms, which would drive up the price of produce and limit supply.

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However, the threat is still there. Ross reviewed the history of tariffs and groceries and found that once a tariff is implemented, prices rise immediately because suppliers are concerned about losing money on the back end. Furthermore, reciprocal tariffs on produce will impact local farmers who are closely linked to supermarkets.

If tariffs are in place for a lengthy period, grocers could see a 3.8% cut in sales, Ross predicted. But combine this with significant farm worker deportations, cuts to SNAP benefits (which is on the table) and that number could look closer to 4.47% in terms of a decline in sales this year.

Ross personally is predicting a 1.9% increase in sales for grocers this year, while units remain flat.

“I think the likelihood of tariffs coming in is very, very low,” said Ross. “If you look at [deportations] and the attacks on undocumented labor in the farming industry, they were few and far between [over the last month], and then they sort of disappeared because no one wants to face an environment where 20% to 30% of your crop goes bad in the field.”

SNAP benefits could also be affected. The House of Representatives is requesting about a 20% cut in SNAP funding, according to Chris Jones, chief government relations officer and counsel for the National Grocers Association, during a session on the industry and how it will operate under another Trump administration on Tuesday. A Robert F. Kennedy-led Health and Human Services Department could also place restrictions on the types of food purchased under the SNAP program.

Jones also thinks that, under an administration more in favor of deregulation, deadlines for the Food Traceability Rule (FSMA 204) and refrigerant system upgrades could be pushed back.

Egg prices could stay high for some time

The price of eggs might not decrease in 2025, said Sue Boyle, director of integrated marketing for the American Egg Board during a session on Monday. 

Boyle stressed that this is a stronger strain of bird flu than in the past. Previous strains were usually killed off by extreme weather, but this current strain is not showing any signs of weakening.

Over the last four weeks, 27 million egg-laying hens have been lost to bird flu, according to the American Egg Board.

“I don’t believe we’ve gone a week in 2025 without an outbreak,” Boyle said.

Boyle said farmers have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in biosecurity measures, but the virus has proven to be too strong.

Recovery is also taking longer. In the past, when a farm was hit, it took about six to nine months to get egg production back up to speed. Now, it is taking nine months to a year due to various reasons, Boyle said.

With a new administration in place, the grocery industry is facing change like it never has before. But grocery retailers have always been one to roll with whatever comes their way. The feeling from this year’s NGA annual meeting is they will use tech and innovation to continue to be resilient.