USDA: APPLES TO RISE IN THE EAST, FALL IN THE WEST

ERIC THORSEN

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. Department of Agriculture, here, has forecasted that U.S. apple production will decrease 7% by year's end.

The decrease will drop total production to 251.5 million bushels, from 271.1 million bushels a year ago. If proven true, the 1999 harvest would become the seventh largest in history. Last year's crop ranked as the second largest.

According to Jim Cranney, vice president of industry services for the McLean, Va.-based U.S. Apple Association and a recent speaker at last month's 1999 Apple Outlook and Marketing Conference, held in Chicago, the lower crop numbers reflect the normal cyclical nature these types of trees follow.

"When [deciduous fruit trees] have a pretty heavy crop load on them, the following year the tree will not produce as much as it did the previous year," he said. "So it recaptures its reserves, and then will produce a heavy crop the following year."

Case in point: The New England region had a dismal crop load last year that was mainly linked to unwelcome weather. This year, however, New England's crop production rebounded, and crop totals are expected to increase 52%, according to the forecast.

In fact, the Eastern regions will all recover this year, with production levels estimated to reach 65.4 million bushels, up 18% from 55.6 million bushels a year ago. New York's average crop is expected to increase more than 13%, and the Appalachian region will likely increase 24% above last year's total.

The Midwest region is also anticipating above-average harvests, with crop predictions estimated at 35.2 million bushels, up 12% from 31.5 million bushels last year. The Michigan average crops are expected to be fairly strong and to increase 8% over last year's figures. Together, the Eastern and Midwest regions' crop-production totals will increase 16% to 100.6 million bushels, from 87 million bushels a year ago.

Following strong bumper-crop production levels last year, harvests in the West are expected to drop this year. According to the outlook, average crop production for the region is expected to decrease to 150.9 million bushels, down 18% from 184.1 million bushels a year ago.

California's average crop production is expected to increase a mere 1% from last year. However, the Washington state region is expected to see a more substantial 19% decrease in average crop output, as compared with last year. This is significant, because the state traditionally accounts for roughly one half of the domestic apple supply.

"It just so happens that the crop was rather large last year in Washington state," he said. "So, the [overall] crop decrease this year is primarily because Washington crops are significantly down this year."

What can retailers and consumers expect?

According to Cranney, a better batch of higher-quality apples. He said that unlike last year, when the industry experienced problems linked to hot weather conditions and severe storms, this year's crops will be healthier and more readily available.

"We expect to have a really high-quality product this year," he said. "There's adequate pounds of production out there." He added that marketing efforts by supplier-retailer partnerships promoting apples will continue to be a priority again this year.

He also predicted that the lower production numbers will have little effect on pricing, and any fluctuations in supply should be balanced out in the distribution chain.

"These types of issues get resolved in the normal course of business," he said.