1. Tampa-St. Petersburg

Population growth: 0.8%

Job growth: 4.20%

Market analysis: Tampa-St. Petersburg leads in CrowdStreet’s top five regions for retail investment as it sees discretionary spending from both residents and visitors. “Not only are there a bunch of people moving into [the region], but also the visitation—the number of people who have come in and spent money in that city who don't live there—has been quite incredible,” said Ryan Strub, head of commercial investments for CrowdStreet. “You'll see retail kind of follow those trends. If people are moving there, if people are coming there to spend their discretionary income, you’re going to see that growth in the retail sales. … That’s what really excites us about the Tampa-St. Pete market.”

Grocery market share in 2021: Given that the majority of its stores are in Florida, Publix unsurprisingly holds the biggest piece of the grocery market pie in Tampa-St. Petersburg. The Lakeland, Fla.-based supermarket had a 71% market share among traditional grocers in the region in 2021. In second place is another Florida staple, Jacksonville, Fla.-based Winn-Dixie, with an 11.8% share, followed by Walmart Neighborhood Market, with a 6% market share.

When looking at the top three wholesale clubs in the region, Placer.ai found that Westborough, Mass.-based BJ’s Wholesale Club had the strongest market share at 58.5%. Florida has been a point of focus for BJ’s, which opened its 34th club in the state on Jan. 21, 2022, in Port Charlotte. The club is also planning to open a store in Lady Lake, Fla., this year. Trailing not far behind, was Issaquah, Wash.-based Costco at 33.7%. Costco, Placer.ai noted, saw a 20.2% increase in market share in 2021 vs. 2019. Bentonville, Ark.-based Sam’s Club rounded out the top three with 7.8% market share.

Bentonville-based Walmart—which frequently touts that 90% of the U.S. population lives within 10 miles of a Walmart store—has a higher share of superstores in the region than Minneapolis-based rival Target, which holds 22% share. However, Walmart’s market share in the region declined 7% from 2019 to 2021, Placer.ai found.    

Meanwhile, on the dollar-store front, Chesapeake, Va.-based Dollar Tree leads in market share at 40.4%, followed by Goodlettsville, Tenn.-based Dollar General (28.1%) and Columbus, Ohio-based Big Lots (12.8%) when looking at the top five dollar-store chains in the region.