What’s driving bakery growth in 2025What’s driving bakery growth in 2025

In 2025, supermarkets are expecting some transformation in their bakery departments, responding to shifting consumer preferences and emerging trends that started to take root in 2024.

With a growing emphasis on health, sustainability, and convenience, supermarket bakeries are introducing an array of innovative products designed to meet the evolving demands of shoppers.

From artisanal breads and seasonal treats to gluten-free and low-sugar options, the diversity of offerings has helped the bakery segment capture a wide range of customer needs and preferences.

Katie Macarelli, a spokesperson for Lakewood, Colo.-based Natural Grocers, has seen several significant trends emerge and evolve in the bakery category, each reflecting a growing consumer demand for better-for-you options and mindful eating habits.

“One of the most prominent trends has been high protein baked goods, which cater to consumers seeking convenient ways to meet their protein goals without sacrificing flavor,” she said. “Products like protein-packed bars, including the up-and-coming Perfect Bar, have resonated strongly with shoppers looking for on-the-go nutrition that aligns with active lifestyles.”

Regenerative whole grains have also made waves recently, with shoppers showing a deeper interest in where and how their food is grown.

Related:Why home baking continues to persist

“These grains go beyond sustainability—they support soil health, biodiversity, and nutrient density, aligning with a broader movement toward climate-conscious and eco-friendly food choices,” Macarelli said. “Gut health remains a key focus, influencing innovations in bakery products enriched with prebiotics, probiotics and fermented ingredients. Consumers are embracing the connection between the gut and overall wellness, and they’re seeking bakery items that contribute to digestive harmony.”

Additionally, the shift toward low-sugar baked goods has been undeniable. As people prioritize reducing added sugar in their diets without compromising indulgence, brands have innovated with natural sweeteners and balanced flavors to meet these expectations.

“These trends underscore a meaningful shift toward more conscious and nutrient-rich eating that we expect to continue shaping the future of baked goods,” Macarelli added.

Trends to watch

Still, old staples, especially in the sweet department, will continue to be popular in 2025 according to industry insiders.

Miguel Paradela, chief commercial officer of Arlington, Va.-based discount supermarket chain Lidl US, which has more than 150 stores throughout the East Coast, noted 2024 was all about indulgent purchases in the bakery department and that’s expected to continue this year.

Related:Why budget friendly bakery items are trending

“We’ve had great success with new sweet treats especially,” he said. “In 2025, we’ll place a greater emphasis on adding more decadent and convenient type items.”

Some of the newer offerings at Lidl US include the Cinnamon Roll Donut, Apple Fritter, Chocolate Yeast Donut, Glazed Yeast Donut, Glazed Cake Donut, Blueberry Muffin with Streusel, and Triple Chocolate Muffin.

“In 2025, the in-store bakery will remain a powerful supermarket destination,” Paradela said.

Melissa Altobelli, senior vice president of dairy and bakery for Chicago-based research firm Circana, noted that perimeter donuts, muffins, buns, and rolls are the unit winners for bakery compared to three years ago.

“Perimeter donuts and center store cookies grew household penetration in 2024, while many other categories lost penetration,” she said during Circana’s recent “Food! The Biggest Influencer” webinar. Those are expected to remain posting lofty numbers in 2025.

Jorge Gonzalez, director of Aurora, Colo.-based Ahorra Mucho, a discount grocery store created by a partnership between Save A Lot and Leevers Supermarkets, which caters to Hispanic shoppers, noted there’s been a surge in demand for authentic, culturally inspired bakery items.

Related:SN Products to Watch: Pillsbury Ready To Bake Minions Cookies

“We’ve seen a huge interest in Hispanic-inspired bakery selections like fresh sweet breads, bolillos, teleras and a variety of tres leches cakes which have become customer favorites,” he said. “Building on this success, we are expanding our bakery offerings to incorporate the unique preferences of our growing Colombian and Venezuelan customer base in 2025.”

Bread is bringing in the dough

The bakery department has also seen a rising emphasis on artisanal and locally sourced products, often featuring unique and adventurous flavor combinations, according to the International Dairy Deli Bakery Association. Global influences are also making a mark, with items like mochi and naan appearing more frequently in U.S. grocery stores.

Bread is experiencing a notable resurgence; after a period of decline due to low-carb diet trends, it’s making a comeback as consumers seek out familiar, comforting staples amid economic uncertainty.

Natural Grocers has found that the enduring popularity of sourdough continues to flourish.

“Once a pandemic-driven phenomenon, sourdough’s appeal has evolved as consumers increasingly appreciate its unique flavor, artisanal qualities, and digestive benefits stemming from natural fermentation,” Macarelli said.

Savvy marketing

Natural Grocers has seen significant traction with campaigns that bring education and value together in creative ways. For instance, it hosts free nutrition education classes at all stores with a nutritional health coach tied to the bakery department.

“These are often tied to wellness topics, like ‘Gut Health’ or our ‘Nutrient to Know About,’ where customers can learn about specific product benefits, test recipes ask questions and receive a coupon to shop at the end of the class,” Macarelli said. “These initiatives have been particularly effective at turning trends into actionable choices for our shoppers.”

At Lidl US, the company understands the role of human senses, so as people walk in to shop, they are greeted with the smell of fresh bakery items and around 40 bakery items on display in the bakery case.

The company also recently partnered with a design agency to create new in-store signage, online videos and billboards to reintroduce shoppers to its bakery items, most notably bagels and donuts.

“Overall, demand for grocery bakery offerings, specifically donuts and bagels, is rising,” Paradela said. “Over the last year, 82% of U.S. households purchased donuts, and 71.3% purchased bagels in a grocery store, up 12.8% and 3.8% from the previous year, respectively.”

As the bakery segment continues to evolve and respond to consumer demands, a focus on innovation, sustainability and quality will keep the bakery department strong in 2025 and beyond.