Holiday retail sales forecasted to increase up to 4.6%

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Holiday retail sales are predicted to increase between 3.5% to 4.6% in 2023, according to an annual holiday retail forecast from Deloitte. In addition, the professional services company said it expects ecommerce holiday sales to grow between 10.3% to 12.8%  compared to last year’s holiday season. 

The report forecasts that holiday sales will total $1.54 to $1.56 trillion during the November to January timeframe. In 2022, holiday sales grew by 7.6% in the same period, a total of $1.49 trillion.

Ecommerce sales are projected to increase between $278 billion and $284 billion year-over-year this season.

Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster, said that healthy employment and income growth will keep the volume of sales growing for the 2023 holiday season, especially as inflation continues to moderate. 

“This means the total value of retail sales will grow more slowly than last year. Our forecast also reflects a decreasing pool of pandemic-era savings, both of which will weigh on retail sales and are reflected in our lower projected growth for the season,” Bachman said.

“Retail sales are expected to increase even as higher prices continue to create a battle for consumer spending … and compared to pre-pandemic levels, spending on durable goods remains high,” said Nick Handrinos, vice chair, Deloitte LLP, and U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution and consumer products leader. “This season e-commerce sales should continue to be strong as consumers search for the best deals online to maximize their wallets. Retailers who remain flexible to shifting consumer demand and behaviors will likely be poised for growth this holiday season.”

About the report

Deloitte is forecasting a 3.5% to 4.6% increase in 2023 holiday sales compared with the same period in 2022. Retail sales between November 2022 and January 2023 (seasonally adjusted and excluding automotive and gasoline) grew 7.6% and totaled $1.49 trillion according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Deloitte is forecasting a 10.3% to 12.8% increase in 2023 holiday ecommerce sales compared with the same period in 2022. Ecommerce sales between November 2022 and January 2023 (seasonally adjusted and excluding gasoline stations, motor vehicles and parts dealers, and food services) grew 7.9% totaling $252 billion.