Category update: Meat sales stay on top in November, thanks to Thanksgiving

Inflation might still be lingering, but consumers are becoming more optimistic.

That’s according to data from the University of Michigan last month, which shows that consumer sentiment improved from 70.5 points in October to 71.8 points in November.

Shoppers were also splurging more during the Thanksgiving holiday. Total food and beverage sales in Circana’s MULO+ outlets, the expanded data set of marketing research firm Circana, increased 12.4% year over year during Thanksgiving week and 3.7% for the month of November.

The price per unit across all foods and beverages in the Circana MULO+ circuit was $4.24 in November, reflecting a 1.9% increase year-over-year. Fresh food prices (up 2.7%), driven by renewed inflation in areas such as beef and eggs, rose more than center-store prices (up 1.6%).

Whole bird turkey sales, however, declined by 1.3% compared to last year, while turkey breast sales remained flat.

The other holiday meat, ham, also saw weak performance in pounds sold. Semi-boneless ham sales were down over 18% year-over-year, while boneless ham dropped 4.1%. Bone-in and smoked hams decreased by 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively, and spiral ham dropped 2.8%.

Meat’s reign continues

As expected, the meat department experienced the most activity during November. Fresh meat sales rose 6.8% year over year, leading the department to a 5% overall dollar sales increase. The four weeks in November generated $8.6 billion in sales, with consumers spending $6 billion on fresh meat.

Pound sales increased by 2.6% year-over-year, driven primarily by fresh meat.The average price per pound in the meat department across all cuts, both fixed and random weight, stood at $3.85, up 2.4% from November 2023. The two largest proteins, beef and chicken, each saw price increases of about 3%, while pork, turkey, lamb, and processed chicken experienced price declines. Processed meats rose 1.6% in price.

Fresh lamb (up 9%) and fresh beef (up 8.7%) led the way in pound sales for November. Fresh pork (up 5.9%) also performed well, while fresh turkey saw a slight decline of 0.5% year over year.

In processed meats, chicken led with a 14.5% year-over-year increase in pounds sold. Breakfast sausage (up 4%) and bacon (up 3.4%) also saw strong demand.In the grinds sector, lamb sales improved by just over 26% compared to November 2023. Ground chicken and ground turkey rose by 9.8% and 6.4%, respectively, while ground beef increased by 5%.

Produce also pops

Fresh produce had a successful November, with fresh fruit (up 5%) and fresh vegetables (up 4.6%) both performing well in terms of volume sold year over year.

Berries (up 18.3%), grapes (up 15.6%), and avocados (up 13.6%) were the top performers in fresh produce, based on pounds sold. However, melon sales dropped by 11% year over year.

In the fresh vegetables section, cucumbers saw a 13.6% increase in pounds sold compared to November 2023. Onions (up 7%), salad kits (up 5%), tomatoes (up 5%), broccoli (up 3.9%), potatoes (up 3.8%), and peppers (up 3.8%) also performed well.

Seafood performs swimmingly

Seafood experienced strong dollar sales across fresh, frozen, and shelf-stable categories in November. However, pound sales varied. Fresh seafood saw a slight decline of 0.1% year over year, while shelf-stable seafood increased by 6.4% and frozen seafood grew by 2.3%.

Ambient, or shelf-stable, seafood rose by 3.4% year over year, led by a 5.6% increase in ambient sardines. Ambient tuna increased by 4.1% in units sold.

Trout was the big seller for fresh seafood, registering a 12.3% increase in pounds sold year over year. Tilapia (up 9.3%) and catfish (up 8.2%) also saw notable increases. However, lobster sales dropped by 19% in pounds sold compared to November 2023.

In frozen foods, frozen pollock (up 3.7%) and frozen salmon (up 3.6%) were the top performers in terms of pounds sold.

Deli counter was busy

November was also a strong month for deli sales, with increases in both dollar and unit sales. Three out of the four deli areas saw an increase in unit sales year over year, with only deli meat falling behind November 2023 levels.

Deli meat sales were down 7.9% in units sold and 7.8% in pounds sold. Service deli meat dropped by more than 10% year over year, while pre-sliced and grab-and-go deli items decreased by 5.6% and 3.8%, respectively.

Deli cheese sales increased by 5.7% in pounds sold year over year, led by specialty (up 8.1%) and grab-and-go (up 5.4%) items.

Deli entertaining items saw a positive bump, with a 5.5% year-over-year increase in pounds sold. Pickles/relish spiked by just over 20% year over year, and trays were up 8.3%. Meanwhile, spreads declined by 5.4%.

Deli prepared items experienced a 4.6% rise in units sold compared to November 2023. Prepared meats rose 11.2% in units sold, and salads were up 7.6%. Soups and chili (up 6.5%), pizza (up 6.1%), and appetizers (up 6%) also performed well last month. Breakfast items, however, were down 12.8% year over year.

Bakery continues to be one of the last perimeter departments to fully recover in the post pandemic erac, as both dollar and unit sales continue to lag behind year-over-year figures.

Center-store bakery sales were down 1.7% in units sold year over year, with only morning bakery items (up 2.2%) showing positive numbers.

Perimeter bakery sales rose slightly (up 1.6%), with croissants (up 8.4%) and breads (up 6.8%) leading the way. Brownies and bars suffered the biggest decline, with a 9.3% drop in unit sales.

Frozen foods’ solid performance

Processed meat and poultry were the top sellers in frozen foods during November, registering a 12.8% year-over-year increase in units sold. Overall, frozen foods increased by 1.8% year over year.

Meat and poultry sales rose by 8.9% in units sold year over year, and fruits and vegetables increased by 7.5%. However, beverage sales dropped by 8.8%.

In frozen fruit and vegetables, taters (up 15.9%), fruit (up 11%), plain potatoes (up 11.3%), and corn (up 10.7%) were the big gainers compared to November 2023. Potatoes and onion rings rose by 8.3% in units sold, and beans (up 8.4%) and hashbrowns (up 8.1%) also saw strong demand.

Still down

The decline in plant-based meat alternatives continued in November, with unit sales down 7.6% year over year. However, after three years of double-digit declines, both dollar and volume sales for combined frozen and refrigerated plant-based meat alternatives are starting to level off somewhat.

Frozen meat/poultry alternatives fell 3.3% in unit sales year over year and 3% in volume sales.