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NRF: Retail Sales Pace Could Pick Up in 2018
Economic forecast looks promising as consumer confidence remains high. The trade group expects sales to accelerate as the economic forecast looks promising and consumer confidence remains high.
2 Min Read
Retail sales will grow between 3.8% and 4.4% in 2018, according to the National Retail Federation's annual forecast. Additionally, online and other non-store sales, which are included in the overall number, are expected to increase between 10% and 12%. The numbers exclude automobiles, gas stations and restaurants.
Sales grew by 3.9% in 2017 to $3.53 trillion, the NRF said, citing the U.S. Census Bureau's preliminary estimate for the year. That exceeded the NRF’s 2017 forecast, which called for 3.2% to 3.8% sales growth.
Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO, said that a robust holiday season is just one one of many barometers that points to consumers clearly feeling positive about their financial health.
“Despite headlines to the contrary, the retail industry is strong, growing and meeting consumer demand with the products they want at the prices they expect and the shopping experience they want to have, online or in store," Shay said in a statement. "With consumer confidence high, unemployment low and wages growing, there is every reason to believe that retail sales will be robust throughout the year.”
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz affirmed that "the underpinnings of the economy are very good" and consumer spending is at the center of NRF's outlook.
"The push and pull of forces both external and internal to the U.S. economy will continue to provide challenges, but on balance we expect a good year," Kleinhenz said. "And as the retail industry continues to transform, retailers will leverage the new tax plan to invest in their employees, stores and new formats that engage with the ever-evolving and demanding consumer."
The report also noted:
The overall economy is expected to gain an average of 163,000 jobs a month, down slightly from 2017 but consistent with labor market growth.
Unemployment is expected to drop to 3.9% by the end of the year.
Gross domestic product growth is likely to be in the range of 2.5% to 3%.
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