BUYERS: FLORIDA FREEZE MAY KEEP PRODUCE PRICES HIGH

RALPH RAIOLA

Prices on vegetables affected by the recent Florida freeze are expected to remain high, in some cases even doubled, in supermarkets for at least the next several weeks.

That is what produce marketers and buyers told SN they are hearing. Those expectations are supported by the latest reports from the Florida Department of Agriculture, based in Tallahassee.

Terrence McElroy, spokesman for the department, said he thought growers would be able to recover from the damage, which would take pressure off prices in the next several weeks.

Retailers told SN they were hearing various predictions from their suppliers about how long the spike in prices will last.

"From every indication, I don't expect it to last more than the next two or three weeks," said James Drinkard, produce buyer for Autry Greer & Sons, the 39-store chain based in Prichard, Ala.

But another retailer said he expected the roughly $300 million in damage, mainly to Florida's winter vegetable crops, will not be so easy to overcome.

"They'll probably stay like that for the next four or five weeks," said Ken Lanhardt, director of produce and floral operations for Cub Foods' Atlanta, Ga. division.

Lanhardt said past experience shows prices usually do not stabilize again until after at least four or five weeks, because growers are forced to start from scratch.

"In some cases, their whole crops were destroyed," Lanhardt said. "They'll have to replant."

Regardless of how long it takes growers to recover, retailers said the volume was definitely

lower than usual for many commodities as of last week, and prices on a number of products have soared since the freeze.

Lanhardt has seen prices on snap beans, green beans and bell peppers just about double since the cold snap.

Several other items, including Florida okra, and greens that southern Georgia grows were also severely damaged.

At Cub, Lanhardt said he is attempting to keep prices stable, even though he said it will mean a loss.

"We are trying to hold it down as much as we can, lowering markup and lowering our profit," Lanhardt explained.

Drinkard said he has witnessed some consumer concern, but he said he felt, for the most part, shoppers have kept calm about the price hikes.

State agriculture officials said they believed the cold snap did not have as great of an effect on the citrus crop, of which only about half had been harvested. But hard data on citrus damage has yet to be collected and analyzed, they said.

"The only imponderable is the citrus crop," McElroy said. "We estimate about $50 million to $60 million in damage, but that's admittedly conservative." That figure constitutes about 4% of the total crop value.

However, Tropicana Products, Bradenton, Fla., made the prediction that this freeze "will lead to the worst citrus crop loss since 1989." Tropicana uses about 20% of the state's annual harvest for its processing.

Bob Blankenship, a public information officer for state agriculture commissioner Crawford, said he did not expect the actual citrus harvest to be affected, but that the yield from the fruit picked could be negatively affected.

While Tropicana officials said it is too early to tell whether the freeze will impact consumer prices for orange juice, prices for orange juice concentrate stock have rocketed, said Gary Rodkin, president of Tropicana, in a statement.

Tropicana officials also said that despite soaring concentrate prices, they do not expect supply shortages to occur because Florida growers had a record crop on the trees. About 90% of Florida's orange crop is used for processing.

Shipments of the top seven of the state's vegetables fell off an average of 58.5% since the freeze hit Jan. 18 and 19, with squash suffering an 89% drop and beans falling about 73%, according to Blankenship.

"For vegetables, it's the worst freeze ever," Blankenship said. "The jury's still out on citrus."

Weather hasn't been a problem just for the growing states in the Southeast to deal with; heavy rains recently in California have ruined broccoli and Brussels sprout crops, causing prices to skyrocket, said retailers.

Mexico also suffered a cold snap, similar to the one that hit Florida, and commodities such as bell peppers and tomatoes from that country are also keeping prices up, Lanhardt said.