VIDEO FORECAST: SUPERMARKETS ARE HOPING THAT A HUGE VARIETY OF PRODUCT WILL TRANSLATE TO RECORD YEAR-END BUSINESS

RANDY WEDDINGTON

The fourth-quarter video market, traditionally the year's peak, is set to scale new heights. An impressive theatrical summer will supply many of the season's rental hits. Major VHS sell-through titles will return in force. And DVD, having quickly penetrated the mass market, will make its strongest contribution to date.

"It's going to be a hot and heavy fourth quarter," said Greg Rediske, president, Video Management Co., Tacoma, Wash. "It's certainly more varied than usual. There's a good, broad mix with fairly good demographic coverage on most titles."

"The fourth quarter is looking much stronger than last year," said Bill Bryant, vice president of sales, grocery and drug, Ingram Entertainment, La Vergne, Tenn. "There will be many sell-through titles that will also perform well in the rental market."

As usual at this time of year, studios have yet to announce some of the choicest sugarplums for the holidays. And so retailers and distributors, again as usual, are speculating about which titles to expect.

The biggest box-office champions -- some already scheduled -- make the most desirable stocking stuffers.

"'Shrek,' 'The Grinch' and 'The Mummy Returns' will be the quarter's top performers," said Bill Glaseman, video specialist, Bashas', Chandler, Ariz.

"We'll do wonderful business with ['Shrek']," said Paul Richardville, director of video/photo, Reasor's, Tahlequah, Okla. "It's a good movie with crossover appeal for both children and adults."

DreamWorks Home Entertainment, Glendale, Calif., recently announced a Nov. 2 release date for this title, which was on many supermarket wish lists because of its theatrical success and family appeal.

There are many more titles coming, however -- even if there isn't complete agreement about what they are.

Although some retailers said they didn't expect "Pearl Harbor" to be available this year, Disney last week announced a Dec. 4 date for the title.

Craig Hill, video specialist, Harps Food Stores, Springdale, Ark., said he has some qualms about having so much new product hit the shelves in such a short period of time, however.

"I'd rather the studios spread sell-through titles out more during the year," he said. "This makes it tough for everybody."

This year, however, supermarkets must adjust to an embarrassment of riches.

Fourth-quarter, rental-priced releases will include "Evolution," "A.I.," "Tomb Raider," "The Animal," "Bridget Jones's Diary" and "Moulin Rouge," said Bryant. And sell-through product, he said, will include "The Mummy Returns," "Shrek," "Jurassic Park III," "Planet of the Apes," "Dr. Dolittle 2," "The Grinch," "Cats and Dogs" and "Pearl Harbor."

Retailers are still making their own predictions.

"It's possible that 'Jurassic' will hit the fourth quarter," said Rediske, "but Universal will be fighting themselves at some point."

"Indeed, Universal Studios Home Video, Universal City, Calif. -- which also handles DreamWorks product -- has already scheduled "Mummy" and "Grinch." Still, when asked about the possibility of a fourth-quarter release for "Jurassic Park III," Executive Vice President of Marketing Ken Graffeo told SN that "there's always an opportunity."

Universal has a strong lineup even without the title.

"We're going to have the biggest fourth quarter ever, and the supermarkets are going to love us," Graffeo said. "'The Mummy Returns,"' for instance, is "bigger and broader and should play very well as an action-adventure for supermarkets." In support, he said, the studio will promote the sequel with a large freestanding insert with Tootsie Roll during the week of Oct. 20.

Also new from Universal in October are the rental titles "Beautiful Creatures," which is a comic thriller with Rachel Weisz, and "Rat," in which Pete Postlethwaite becomes a rodent, plus DVDs of "Midway" and "MacArthur."

And following "The Grinch," Graffeo said, Universal will have "The Land Before Time VIII" on Dec. 4 and "Beethoven's 4th" coming out at the same time for sell-through.

Further, DreamWorks will be "repricing and repackaging all of our successful family movies," said Kelly Sooter, adding that animated titles will street at a $14.99 suggested retail price. "This allows us to have a $9.99 everyday price in a lot of retail outlets," she said.

Twentieth Century Fox Home Entertainment, Century City, Calif., will release "Dr. Dolittle 2" at sell-through pricing on Oct. 23. "It's being positioned as the funniest family movie of the year and the first family movie of the holiday season," said Todd Rowan, vice president of marketing. "You can't beat talking animals."

Two George Lucas-produced films will also debut on DVD from Fox. "Star Wars: Episode 1" streets Oct. 16, while "Willow" -- which "hasn't been available on video for six years," Rowan said -- arrives Nov. 27.

Other Fox holiday product includes reissues of "Miracle on 34th Street," the "Home Alone" series, and "Jingle All the Way," plus the new-to-DVD "Toys."

Warner Home Video, Burbank, Calif., will have "Scooby-Doo and the Cyber Chase," a "brand new feature-length, direct-to-video adventure," said Ewa Martinoff, vice president of family entertainment marketing. Three new space exploration titles in the studio's IMAX collection are scheduled as well. And, besides new offerings from Mary-Kate and Ashley and the Powerpuff Girls, there will be a new Tom & Jerry direct-to-video release called "Tom & Jerry's Magic Ring," she said.

New Line Home Entertainment, Los Angeles, has the rental comedies "Town & Country" with Warren Beatty, Goldie Hawn and Diane Keaton, and "Pros & Cons" with Tommy Davidson and Larry Miller in October, along with sell-through promotions of "State & Main" and "Before Night Falls."

Another major title follows nearer the holidays. "Our biggest story is our repricing of 'Thirteen Days' on Nov. 13," said Justine Brody, vice president of marketing and promotions.

New DVD, children's and rental titles -- the latter likely to include the mega-hit "Lara Croft: Tomb Raider" -- are coming from Paramount Home Entertainment, Hollywood, Calif.

"Besides the DVDs of 'The Godfather' and 'Forrest Gump,' which the public has been requesting for a long time now," said Martin Blythe, vice president of publicity. Paramount also has the director's edition of "Star Trek: The Motion Picture" and "Apocalypse Now Redux" on the way.

The studio, a late starter in DVD, is getting up to speed in the format. On Oct. 23 Paramount is releasing "Rugrats: Decade in Diapers" on DVD.

"We're seeing distinct signs that families are embracing DVD for their children," said Blythe.

Other children's titles include a new "Little Bear" tape and two more volumes of "Blue's Clues" in November, all at $9.95 on VHS.

Columbia TriStar Home Entertainment, Culver City, Calif., has scheduled more classics for DVD release, maintaining one of the most aggressive product rollouts. These discs include "On the Waterfront," "From Here to Eternity," "Monty Python and the Holy Grail" and "Funny Girl."

On Oct. 2 the studio will release "White River" with Antonio Banderas for rental and "A Christmas Tale," a CGI-animated children's feature, for VHS sell-through.

Top rental titles forthcoming from MGM Home Entertainment, Santa Monica, Calif., include "Heartbreakers" in October and "Legally Blonde" in November. DVD debuts include special editions of "The Terminator" and "Fiddler on the Roof," plus a $14.95 DVD of "Prancer" that promises to be "a great holiday seller," said Robert Wittenberg, executive vice president of sales.

DVD also figures into holiday plans for Buena Vista Home Entertainment, Burbank, Calif. "Our biggest focus for the fourth quarter is 'Snow White,' which premieres on DVD on Oct. 9," said Gordon Ho, vice president of brand marketing, animation.

The two-disc set (at $29.99) has bells and whistles that are music to the ears of retailers. "We're very excited about Disney's DVD rollout of 'Snow White,"' said Richardville of Reasor's.

The studio promises "a breakthrough experience, the first immersible DVD experience," said Ho. This involves a joke-telling Magic Mirror who guides viewers through the trove of bonus material. Production stills will be displayed on the walls of a "virtual art gallery," complete with a virtual tour guide.

There is also an "interactive time line" which covers every theatrical release of the film. "We have the original theatrical poster and trailer, and we have a celebrity who takes you behind the scenes of that decade" of Disney activity, Ho said.

Other product includes the rental release of "Bridget Jones's Diary," plus, for sell-through, the 60th anniversary edition of "Dumbo." The latter streets Oct. 23 with "Whispers," a new animated feature about another baby elephant.

In November the Home for the Holidays 2001 collection has three new features: "Mickey's Magical Christmas," with all of the Disney characters snowed in at Mickey's; "Recess Christmas: Miracle on 3rd Street," with characters from the popular TV series; and "Santa Who?" with Leslie Nielsen as an amnesiac Santa.

And on Dec. 4 there's a "brand new initiative" called Walt Disney Treasures, said Lori Macpherson, vice president of brand marketing, live-action. These are four, two-disc sets in collectable tins, containing "some of the rare and unseen programs that Walt actually touched," she said. These first sets include Mickey Mouse and Silly Symphonies cartoons, Davy Crockett episodes and a history of Disneyland.

A&E Home Video, New York, sets a record with a huge boxed set of all 51 Diana Rigg episodes of "The Avengers." Retailing for $199.95 -- making it a special-order item for nostalgic dads -- "The Complete Emma Peel DVD Mega-Set" has an unprecedented 16 discs.

Artisan Home Entertainment kicks off the quarter with "Barbie in the Nutcracker."

It's "a completely CGI-animated, feature-length movie," said Hosea Belcher, senior vice president of marketing, "with a comprehensive marketing campaign."

The studio's rental titles will include "Made" with Vince Vaughn, "Replicant" with Jean-Claude Van Damme and "Ticker" with Steven Seagal and Dennis Hopper.

Lyrick Studios, Allen, Texas, will have Christmas-themed volumes of "Bob the Builder" and "The Wiggles" for sell-through in October.

Lions Gate Home Entertainment, Marina Del Rey, Calif., will also have children's product via its recent output deal with animation specialist DIC Enterprises. This will include "Madeline," "Inspector Gadget" and "Sonic the Hedgehog" titles. "This is really an exciting new arena for us," said Director of Publicity Scott Hayman. "These should all be good for grocery."

And Showtime Entertainment, New York, has "A Girl Thing," "a miniseries with an incredible cast," said Sallie Fraenkel, senior vice president, marketing and operations, program enterprises and distribution. The four-hour program -- starring Kate Capshaw, Mia Farrow and Stockard Channing -- streets Nov. 6 for sell-through on double cassette and single disc.

Showtime is also repricing four Family Night at the Movies titles to $9.98 on VHS, as well as debuting them on DVD. "Supermarkets have been very supportive of our family product," said Fraenkel. "We're starting to build a respectable business there."