Kroger 84.51° survey finds a cautious shopper heading into 2023

Shoppers are exhibiting a pessimistic outlook going into 2023 and are taking a more guarded approach to spending, the latest research from The Kroger Co.’s 84.51° data science and insights arm shows.

Eighty-five percent of consumers think a recession is imminent, and 48% think a recession already is under way, according to the 84.51° Real Time Insights Survey for November, which polled people who shopped with The Kroger Co. in the past three months. Twenty-eight percent report feeling uncomfortable with their finances, up from 27% in both October and September and well over the 16% expressing financial concern in February.

Similarly, 69% of respondents to the November survey said they’re “extremely concerned” about inflation, up from 65% in October and 61% in February and near the peak of roughly 72% over the summer months. Meanwhile, extreme concern about COVID-19 has declined steadily, from 36% in February to 20% in September and to 14% in November.

Source: Kroger 84.51°

Elevated grocery prices have pushed shoppers to take action, the 84.51° findings revealed. For example, 65% said they’re seeking out sales, deals and coupons, while 39% are buying fewer items per trip. Purchases of non-essential items like snacks and candy are being cut back by 61% of respondents.

With inflation still high, consumers are well-attuned to which product categories have experienced price hikes. The 84.51° survey found that 86% of households noticed dairy price increases in Kroger stores, and 80% cited price gains in deli/meat/fish. Other categories where Kroger shoppers saw higher prices included produce (cited by 78%), drinks (73%), frozen foods (72%), paper products (72%) and household cleaners (66%).

Source: Kroger 84.51°

In all of those product categories, Kroger shoppers reported that they’re cutting back—notably in drinks (42%), deli/meat/fish (34%), frozen food (23%) and paper products (21%)—and, as a result, Kroger has seen unit sales decline in all of those segments over the four-week period, with decreases ranging from 4% to 8%.

To rein in spending, 52% of Kroger customers surveyed said they’ve purchased a lower-cost more often than usual, whereas 10% said they wouldn’t adopt such a strategy. Product categories where shoppers have shown a willingness to shift to lower-costs brands include personal care, beauty care, cereal, health care and deli/meat/fish.

Consumers shopping with Kroger are stretching their grocery dollars for the holiday season by cutting back on impulse purchases, buying items when on sale, setting a budget for their grocery trip and simplifying their holiday menu, 84.51° reported. Seventy-nine percent of customers said they aim to use loyalty cards the same amount or more this holiday season. The survey also showed that 62% of customers don’t plan to splurge on groceries for the holidays this year.

Source: Kroger 84.51°

When doing their holiday grocery shopping, 55% of Kroger customers polled said they weigh price more heavily versus their normal food shopping trip, 84.51° noted. Holiday consumers also named quality (39%), quantity/size (34%), convenience (26%) and brand (17%) as a greater factor compared with their typical grocery shopping.

Holiday food shopping, though, proves to be something of a double-edged sword for a lot of consumers, 84.51° noted. Of Kroger shoppers surveyed, 42% said their cooking enjoyment rises during the holiday season, yet 34% said their grocery shopping enjoyment falls during the holidays.