Category update: Record sales for many departments

October category data saw strong sales for many departments, including meat, produce, and deli, according to reporting from 210 Analytics and Circana.

From an overall category perspective, the price per unit across all foods and beverages increased 2.2% over October 2023. While fresh food (+2.8%) increased more than center-store (+2%) prices, the gap closed in October as compared to the last few quarters. October inflation also accelerated somewhat in comparison to the third quarter of the year, when prices increased 1.8% across all food and beverages.

The vast majority of purchases continue to happen in-store, with only 12% of consumers indicating they purchase most or all groceries online, according to a recent Circana survey. Another 24% purchase some or a little online, leaving 64% of consumers who purchase groceries in-store exclusively.  

Some 79% of consumers in the Circana survey report they will celebrate Thanksgiving the usual way. The typical Thanksgiving basket is 2% pricier than 2023 but 26% higher than in 2020.

Red meat drives gains

Red meat drove substantial pound and dollar gains for the meat department. Lamb (+11.5%), beef (+7.5%), and pork (+6.1%) gained substantially in pounds. In processed meat, bacon, hot dogs, and dinner sausage all contributed to a total department dollar sales increase of 8% in October.

Related:USDA awards $140M in grants to help lower food prices

Deli sales also hot

The five October weeks brought in $5.3 billion of deli-prepared food sales—solid increases for both dollar and unit sales. Prepared meat, combo meals, and pizza  topped the list of those gains. Three out of the four areas increased unit sales, though deli meat sales did lag year over year (most likely attributable to the Boar’s Head deli meat recall due to possible Listeria contamination). 210 Analytics writes that: “deli-prepared foods remain an interesting growth area amid record-high restaurant prices.”

Fruit free for all

Fruit had a very big month, with 6.9% growth in dollars and a 4.9% increase in pounds. Berries, grapes, and avocados were the biggest contributors to sales. Fruit and vegetable dollar sales increased for fresh and frozen fruit and vegetables; however, shelf-stable sales were down for vegetables.

Frozen is flat

The average price per unit across all items in the frozen food departments was mostly flat in October. Seafood saw deflation of 3.4% whereas prices for most categories remained around year-ago levels. While most categories experienced solid year-over-year unit growth, frozen processed meat and poultry, such as sausage and chicken nuggets, stood out with a unit gain of 7.9% compared to the same five weeks in October 2023. Overall, 210 Analytics writes: “Frozen food is enjoying more feet down the aisle that are converted into dollar (+1.5%) and unit (+1%) gains in October.”

Related:USDA report: The meat industry caters to a select few

Bakery remains subduedBakery sales remained subdued, though some subcategories did see substantial growth, including donuts, croissants, and cookies. Prices in both the bakery and deli departments have stabilized in the past few months. Bakery still has some lingering inflation in the 52-week view, but prices were flat in October. The rapid rise of egg prices could start to impact bakery prices once more, depending on the duration and severity of the avian flu outbreaks. 

Seafood sees slight gains

Fresh seafood prices were up slightly in October, with small increases for both finfish and shellfish. The average price per pound for shelf-stable seafood came in right around $5. Shrimp deflationary prices are starting to appeal to consumers, with substantial volume growth in fresh and frozen, 210 Analytics writes. Salmon volume is rebounding in fresh, but crab and lobster sales continue to lag.

And no sales bump for plant-based meat

Combined refrigerated and frozen plant-based meat alternatives generated $74.1 million in sales in October, with October sales decreasing 4.8% year-over-year. Unit sales reflected the most pressure, down 9.6%. After three years of double-digit declines, dollars and volume decreases for combined frozen and refrigerated plant-based meat alternatives are starting to level off, 210 Analytics writes.

Related:How to make the make the meat department a shopper destination