Albertsons, Publix Positioned for ‘Exceptional Strength,’ Says Placer.ai

As an analytics firm that tracks retail foot traffic, Placer.ai had to take a new approach—one that took into account the unprecedented shopping habits sparked by the pandemic—with its latest report, Making Sense of Grocery 2021, in which it analyzes the performance of the country’s leading grocery store chains. It found that while Albertsons, Publix, Kroger, Trader Joe’s, Safeway and Whole Foods saw relatively high foot traffic numbers during the last year in spite of the pandemic, as vaccinations roll out, economies reopen and states loosen restrictions, will these grocers continue to grow in more “normal” circumstances?

Placer.ai’s latest report indicates that even as we move toward a new norm and post-pandemic landscape, grocers are still seeing strong traffic with many in “great shape.”

“There are a number of factors contributing to the sustained success,” Ethan Chernofsky, VP of marketing for Placer.ai, told WGB. “First, while COVID’s effect may be dissipating, the economic consequences it created will last far longer. In periods of economic uncertainty, grocery shopping provides a value-oriented channel for people looking to be more cost-conscious.

“Second, many of these brands were performing exceptionally well pre-pandemic, and the continued strength is less a product of a new phenomenon and more a result of strong and effective strategy implemented over time. The combination leads to a scenario where many leading grocers are positioned for exceptional strength in 2021.”

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Earlier in the pandemic traditional grocers such as Albertsons, Publix, Kroger, H-E-B, Safeway and Meijer outperformed specialty grocers, as shoppers made less frequent trips to the store, seeking one-stop-shops where they could stock up when they did venture out for food and household essentials. While Chernofsky sees grocers like Albertsons, Publix and Kroger continuing to succeed in 2021, he also expects “brands that have a more targeted approach like Whole Foods or Trader Joe’s to see strength as well.”

To gain an accurate view on where grocery is today and how that compares with past sales, Placer.ai’s latest report essentially had to “throw the numbers out.” The extraordinary consumer behavior driven by the pandemic last year makes for a highly skewed year-over-year comparison of foot traffic.

For example, during the week of March 8, 2021, Placer.ai found that grocery store visits were down 28% overall when compared to the same time last year at the height of pandemic panic buying. So, for its new report, Placer.ai’s analysis instead compares 2021 numbers to 2019. Under this comparison, foot traffic was down only 0.3% during the week of March 8 compared to the same week in 2019 at Albertsons, and up 0.8% at Publix. Albertsons and Publix are two brands Placer.ai has predicted will have “very strong years in 2021.”

When Placer.ai compares 2021 foot traffic with 2019 data, a different picture emerges—one of “significant long-term potential,” said Chernofsky. “Top grocers are actually trending in the right direction and could be heading into a period of unique strength.”

If this is the case, how can top grocers continue the momentum brought about by the pandemic as they head into the second quarter and the rest of the year?

“To make the most of the situation, brands need to be asking how to they leverage this unique moment in time to build something even more enticing for the consumer,” said Chernofsky. “In a post-pandemic economic environment that will privilege value, can prepared [foods] provide a powerful advantage because it allows a cooking reprieve at a lower cost than restaurants? Can brands take steps to sustain the interest in cooking by providing meal kits directly to the consumer at locations?

“Even coffee and pastry concepts that provide a place to sit and work could provide extra value in the current environment,” he continued. “And this doesn’t even take into account building out services like BOPIS. Essentially, there are many ways for brands to capitalize but it takes a willingness to try and test new concepts.”