A Combo Win

The secret formula to robust retail sales last year was pairing health and wellness with convenience.

“That is a winning combination,” said Sheila McCusker, editor of “Times & Trends” for Information Resources Inc., Chicago.

While supermarkets generally executed well against health and wellness and held their own against competitive formats, it was drug stores that scored the most sales gains, up 5.3%, although this was achieved from a much lower base of 5.4% channel market share.

Supermarkets, meanwhile, continued to keep channel erosion at bay and posted an overall sales gain of 1.8% for the same 52-week period ending June 17, 2007.

According to McCusker, this was the first year in many that the drug channel reported real growth. “I think it is because of drug stores' health and beauty care strategies that are successfully bringing consumers into their stores.”

During a period when shopping trips to stores declined due to fast-rising fuel costs, drug store trips were up 1.2% and the channel's overall market basket grew 6.9% for the 52 weeks ending May 13.

Drug store chains have also made a concentrated effort on being convenient. They saturated local areas with more stores. The channel therefore appears to have benefited from rising fuel costs as shoppers tended to patronize stores closer to home and cut down on longer trips to grocery stores and discounters for stock-up purchases. The average number of monthly shopping trips fell 2.6% to just over 13 in 2006, according to IRI data.

Drug stores implemented other strategies to drive traffic and front-end sales. McCusker cited retailers' outreach to seniors in rolling out Medicare Part D plans; health clinics; cross-merchandising and integrating pharmacy with the rest of the store; and upgraded beauty care lines. Walgreens, for example, introduced seven exclusive European skin care brands sourced from France, Spain, Greece, Germany and Switzerland with names that range from La Fleur Organic (France) to Art Deco (Germany). This provided Walgreens a foray into what is referred to as the masstige segment, or prestige products sold at a good value.

“Drug stores have done an exceptional job in marketing new health and beauty care products. Tons of innovation in hair care and drugs also have captured a lot of that growth,” McCusker said.

Food retailers reported more modest market basket growth of 1.9%. However, contrary to what retailers surveyed during the year told SN, IRI reported grocery trips declined 2.8% even though the channel's market basket rose by 1.9%, a possible impact from food inflation.

But supermarkets, which generated the most food and nonfood sales of $269.4 billion and pretty much maintained its channel share of 57% with a slight 0.2% dip, did not rest on past laurels. “We absolutely have to give credit to supermarkets,” said McCusker, “because they held their own. We saw positive trends in grocery last year, and health and wellness was a big component of that.”

She mentioned Safeway's “lifestyle” stores with their emphasis on organic and fresh foods as an example of how food retailers have taken the advantage in their response to health and wellness.

This played out in product categories perceived with healthy benefits in increased sales across the supermarket aisles — energy drinks, up 31%; refrigerated teas/coffees with antioxidant benefits, up 28%; healthy snack rice and popcorn cakes, up 14%; and yogurt, a digestive aid, up 4.1%.

McCusker noted that 2006 saw a lot of product evolution built around healthy eating and making food more convenient to consume. Frozen dinners/entrees and bottled water lead the top 10 consumer product goods categories in growth driven by handheld dinner options and new flavored-water product lines.

In the nonfood department, health care products outpaced total consumer product goods growth across all channels in 2006, posting sales gains of 3.6%. Examples include anti-smoking tablets, which rose 24.8%, and sleep tablets, up 12%.

At supermarkets, pharmacy continued to play a critical role with sales increasing 33% to $14.5 billion. “Pharmacy is a potential gold mine for all retailers,” said McCusker. “The more retailers link pharmacy to the entire store it will really help bolster the health care side of the business.”

Mass market retailers also lost significant ground on the number of shopping trips to their stores. Visits dropped 4.4% even though market baskets jumped 6.3%. Fuel costs have been reported to take a big bite out of the number of trips made to discounters while inflation and stock-up purchases may explain the increase in market baskets.

INFLATION IMPACT

Inflation is partially a driver to the growth of some product category numbers, McCusker pointed out. The impact on product category sales varies with high inflation, and shopping patterns can change. The increase in sugar prices is a good example. Sugar prices rose 15% last year, driven by a number of global struggles such as hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the worldwide increase in gasoline prices. This resulted in prices doubling between September 2005 and February 2006, according to IRI reports.

Consumers facing increased sugar prices turned to Wal-Mart rather than grocery stores. Wal-Mart's share of sugar sales rose nearly 5% at the expense of supermarkets.

“What tends to happen in some categories — those that you stock up on and don't have an immediate need — consumers will turn to value channels in those categories so you do see a shift in where consumers buy in those channels. It's almost an immediate shift,” said McCusker.

Looking ahead to next year, McCusker says health and wellness will continue to dominate as a sales growth driver. The trend has bloomed into total nutritional needs for the body rather than just a focus on weight management with low-calorie and low-carb products, she said. “This fundamental change has opened new doors to manufacturers.”

Health and wellness is also multidimensional and tracks across consumer segments including kids, and it is tied to sustainability and environmental issues.

McCusker sees a real gap when healthy foods are combined with convenience in the shopping trip experience. “Fifty percent of trips consumers make to a store are quick trips,” noted McCusker, adding that supermarkets, convenience stores and drug stores have made strides to meet consumers' need for convenience shopping.

A gap exists, however, when it comes to convenience shopping for fresh foods and produce. “There really aren't a lot of options to get in and out of a store quickly and satisfy the quick-trip needs for fresh foods. Tesco is coming with Fresh & Easy, which is an express format. I think we'll see a lot more stores like that popping up in the next three to five years. Express stores will be a big thing. It's a select category phenomenon.”

Related to this is the movement toward more specialized shopping formats. “Retailers have maximized the strategy of being all things to all people. I think you are starting to see specialization across distinct types of shopping trips whether it's home care, or health and wellness, or nutritious products for kids.”

What follows are summaries of IRI category sales trends for key categories in Nonfood, Page 53; Fresh Market, Page 63; and Center Store, Page 77.
— CHRISTINA VEIDERS

Pharmacy, Fuel Lead Lackluster Nonfood Parade

Most nonfood categories covered by IRI continued their flat to down trajectory, while some relatively new categories, like gift cards and fuel, are reported to be increasing significantly.

Meanwhile, pharmacy — with a relatively large base — has been building steadily in dollar volume. It grew 4.3% in supermarkets to $28.8 billion, according to retail pharmacy sales numbers from the National Association of Chain Drug Stores, Alexandria, Va. Supermarkets had an 11.5% share of the prescription business, NACDS reported.

“Health concerns are up,” said Robert Passikoff, founder and president of the Brand Keys consultancy in New York. “You've got an aging and older population, and you are seeing that reflected in the marketplace.”

Fuel has grown rapidly, driven in part by rising gas prices but also by supermarket expansion of the offering. Last year, SN reported a dollar volume of $10.9 billion in 2005, based on 1,973 supermarket locations, according to the National Association of Convenience Stores, Alexandria, Va. This year, using numbers from EAI (also a source for NACS), Westminster, Colo., supermarkets rose to $14.5 billion, a 33% increase. This is an annualized number from the beginning of 2007's second quarter, said Joseph Leto, president of EAI. The number of grocery stores with fuel pumps was 2,203 at that time, about a 12% increase.

Numbers for gift cards differed too widely to be responsibly reported, but it is clearly a growing category, expanding in dollar volume, number of stores and supermarket share of the prepaid card business.

“Gift cards have been growing incrementally each year and replacing actual product sales,” Passikoff said. He estimated their annual growth as 15%-20% and supermarket share of the gift card market at 10%-15%.

“The fact that gift cards are growing is not a surprise, but the amount it is growing is. They are becoming universally accepted as gifts,” he said.

There are two other large nonfood categories not reported by IRI: magazines representing $2.1 billion in sales, and greeting cards (also including gift wrap and party goods) at $2.6 billion, according to the Willard Bishop SuperStudy.

In the categories reported by IRI, the biggest continues to be internal analgesics at $962 million, followed by vitamins at $784 million; toothpaste at $741 million; cold/allergy/sinus tablets at $718.5 million; and sanitary napkins at $684.3 million.

Categories showing the biggest sales increases were led by hair conditioners rising 5.4% to $399.5 million; suntan lotion up 5% to $161 million; hair accessories up 5% to $155 million; mouthwash up 4.8% to $312 million; and skin care up 3.6% to $508 million.

Categories with the largest declines were photo supplies, dropping 34% to $166 million; shaving lotions/men's fragrances, down 5.9% to $104.5 million; office products, down 3.7% to $123 million; nonfood baby needs, down 3.8% to $165.5 million; and deodorant, down 2.4% to $551 million.

Looking at overall nonfood trends, Paul Weitzel, managing partner of consultant Willard Bishop, Barrington, Ill., said, “Traditional grocery retailers are starting to rethink the old food-drug combo format, where you had food on one side, and drug on the other.” Many customers are shopping the first two-thirds of the store, mostly for their food needs, and reserving the rest of their list for mass merchants like Wal-Mart, Target and Costco, he said.

“Our customers are now shopping aisles and not the entire store because they have more options in other formats and have expanded the set of stores they are willing to shop in. So we are missing those trips and those purchases, which tend to be higher margin than grocery,” he said.

Recently, stores like Safeway's “lifestyle” format have represented an effective counter to that trend, Weitzel said. “Grocers are doing a better job with new stores. I think they are more exciting to shop and have done a much better job of meeting the needs of today's consumers,” he said.

Supermarkets continue to be challenged to rethink GM and HBC, with the right assortment and mix, “and I still think we have a ways to go to optimize and generate a better return on investment for that part of the store. We still have an opportunity to build on and do a better job,” Weitzel said.
— DAN ALAIMO

Fresh Foods Post Growth Around The Edges

A quick glance at the perishables department numbers posted in this issue, and casual readers could be excused for thinking that the latest 52 weeks have been a banner year for fresh foods. Big, mature categories like fresh bread, refrigerated juice and eggs all enjoyed solid dollar sales growth, while milk sales stabilized.

Unfortunately, most of those gains were inflationary. Federal mandates for ethanol production have caused the price of corn to skyrocket this year, raising the cost of animal feeds — a major factor in the rising prices of eggs and milk, as well as other major categories like meat and poultry that aren't listed in the Top 50 categories here.

With exports up significantly and a worldwide drought limiting yields, wheat prices have flirted with record highs this year, boosting the price of bread. Perhaps the most dramatic example of price inflation is in the refrigerated juice category, where a third consecutive year of poor citrus harvests in Florida has led to higher prices for orange juice. The $2.7 billion category posted dollar sales gains of 3% during the past year, even as unit sales fell by 12%.

But there's still plenty of good news around the store perimeter. Spurred by product and packaging innovations, major categories such as yogurt and natural cheese added another year to their story of steady, continued growth — in terms of both units and dollars.

Meanwhile, there have been lots of innovation in products that offer shoppers a convenient way to prepare meals at home. Refrigerated side dishes, for example, posted excellent numbers again this year, and although the relative size of their subcategory precluded coverage in this year's issue, refrigerated marinades and sauces are showing lots of promise as well.

Hummus — a product that's ideally positioned at the intersection of all-natural and ethnic food trends — continues to post stellar gains.

And finally, amid the difficulties that orange juice has been facing, shoppers seem to be embracing other options in the refrigerated juice aisle, trying lemonades and products that incorporate cranberry, pineapple and grape juices. With an ever-growing assortment of flavors and plenty of good press about the antioxidant benefits of tea, the refrigerated tea category continued growing as well.

Commodity price inflation — more importantly the retailer's ability to pass costs along to shoppers — remains a major concern this year. But, while many of these promising categories are growing from fairly small bases, it's clear that innovation is still generating excitement and trial in fresh departments.
— MATTHEW ENIS

Healthy Convenience Boosts CenterStore Sales

American eaters want it all and they want it now.

While the store's perimeter satiates their need for instant gratification, Center Store's shelf-stable and frozen fare lends itself to a new type of convenience that offers busy consumers both on-the-go and at-home options that are still viable when they're ready for them.

Think good-for-you packaged meals (as opposed to packaged foods) that have a long shelf-life and can be conveniently prepared, consumed and disposed of in their container, advises Sheila McCusker, editor of IRI's “Times & Trends” report.

Don't have time to boil water for tea? Conveniently consume your caffeine while reaping the antioxidant benefits of a ready-to-drink green tea. Can't think of what to prepare for dinner tonight? Grab a restaurant-inspired, low-fat dinner entree from the freezer.

Retailers are sourcing a whole slew of food and beverages that fit into consumers' varied lifestyles.

Although one-fifth of consumers eat breakfast or lunch on the go (not sitting down) at least three times per week, according to IRI's 2007 Consumer Snacking study, “Over 50% of meals served in American homes are homemade,” noted Harry Balzer, vice president of the NPD Group and longtime observer of what Americans eat. “Consumers ask themselves, ‘Of the things we already eat, what do I find easy, inexpensive and appealing to all members of the household.’”

Frozen entrees are hitting the mark. In fact, three of the top 10 new food and beverage products on IRI's New Product Pacesetters ranking last year were frozen meal solutions. They include Kraft South Beach, Stouffer's Lean Cuisine Paninis and Stouffer's Corner Bistro entrees. Products like these helped the food channel ring in more than $6 billion in sales in the frozen dinner category during the past year.

Convenience is also key in between meals.

Energy drinks and ready-to-drink teas and coffees are facilitating an increasing number of caffeine boosts, as evidenced by the jolt in dollar sales in the categories. The beverages represented the No. 1 and No. 2 Center Store sales gainers, respectively. Meanwhile, portable bottles of water are siphoning sales from carbonated soft drinks, which still dominates as the largest sales volume category in Center Store. Carbonated beverage manufacturers are fighting to maintain their share with fortified versions of conventional colas that contain vitamins and minerals, including B-3, B-6 and B-12.

Americans are also demanding that easily prepared and consumed foods be good for them. McCusker calls this a demand for “quality convenience.” Quick and easy is no longer good enough, she said. “Consumers want high-quality ingredients, taste and healthy attributes in addition to convenience.”

Growth in sales of portion-controlled, natural, organic, trans fat-free and otherwise better-for-you snacks are riding the healthy wave.

More than half of respondents (63%) to IRI's snacking study indicated that they are trying to replace high-calorie snacks with healthier options and 66% are trying to eat more snacks offering nutrition.

Reformulated versions of traditional treats like potato chips, popcorn, pretzels and cheese snacks are becoming less of a guilty pleasure for more Americans, while dollar sales of rice cakes and trail mixes experienced double-digit growth in the food channel.

American consumers also seem to be waging war on childhood obesity.

Sales of sugar-laden dry fruit snacks, toaster pastries and aseptic juices earned placement on Center Store's top sales decliners list.

Although Americans are game for trying better-for-you versions of their traditional favorites, Belzer noted that many won't sway too far from their longtime favorites.

“Health and wellness falls under the new category and Americans love to try new things, but they have to be new versions of what they already know,” he said.

Still, specific nutrients may influence product shifts within familiar categories.

“Whole grains have become an increasingly powerful factor in purchase and consumption decisions,” noted McCusker.

The source of nourishment may be drawing shoppers back to the ready-to-eat cereal category, which is facing increased competition from quick-serve and other portable breakfast alternatives. Despite dollar sales growth in supermarkets, unit sales of cold cereal, the fifth-largest sales volume Center Store food category, are down slightly in the food channel.

Indeed, large dollar sales aren't always an indication of growth in purchases. Unit sales of cigarettes — whose cost have been driven by state and federal excise taxes — continue their steady decline. Similarly, higher input costs associated with energy and raw materials used to produce toilet tissue, whose unit sales are also declining, influenced its placement on the largest dollar sales in nonfood list.
— JULIE GALLAGHER

What to Know: IRI Numbers

Data were compiled from category sales figures at supermarkets provided by Information Resources Inc., Chicago, for the 52 weeks ending June 17, 2007. That data are used to compare performance of supermarkets to drug stores and combined food, drug and mass channels.

These figures indicate supermarkets' food and nonfood sales totaled $269.4 billion, up 1.57%. Food sales alone rose 1.86% and nonfood posted a slight 0.31% gain. Units dropped 2.2% on food sales and 4.1% on nonfood. Drug stores posted the most gain, 5.27% on total food and nonfood sales of $38.4 billion. Food sales alone rose 5.49% and nonfood sales was up 5.2% in the drug channel. Units remained nearly flat at 0.43% for food and 0.09% for nonfood.

It's important to note that IRI does not include Wal-Mart category sales in figures for combined food/drug and mass channels. However, it does track Wal-Mart performance through its IRI MarketInsight.

Dollar sales and sales shifts in supermarkets for all 297 categories tracked by IRI are published on Pages 26-40. The data are broken down for further analysis into 50 key categories representing large sales volume, top gaining and top declining categories in supermarkets. The 50 categories are ranked by highest to lowest dollar volume on Page 26 and ranked by sales shift — highest to lowest percentage change on Page 36.

In-depth analyses of Nonfood, Fresh Market and Center Store categories start on Pages 53, 63 and 77, respectively. Each of the 50 category profiles includes dollar volume of subsegments, if the categories are broken down as such. Supermarket dollar volume is compared to drug and combined food, drug and mass channels for the reporting period ending June 17, 2007. Historical trend data are presented with dollar volume and percentage changes for the calendar years 2004, 2005 and 2006 for supermarkets, drug stores, and food, drug and mass channels combined.