A STRONG SHOW

RANDY WEDDINGTON

LAS VEGAS -- As supermarket video buyers previewed potential fourth-quarter releases during the Video Software Dealers Association Convention here earlier this month, it could be stated that the old adage "when it rains, it pours" will hold true this holiday season. For most retailers, this is a good thing.

Attending retailers, distributors and studio representatives agreed the outlook for home-video holiday sales is promising, aided by a strong slate of theatrical hits and major direct-to-video titles, the mass-market acceptance of DVD, and several national promotions.

"With so much product this year, we will have a strong fourth quarter," said Brenda Vanover, director of video operations at K-VA-T Food Stores, Abingdon, Va.

For many chains, such as Bashas' Markets, this could prove to be too much of a good thing. "We will have more titles than we can handle," said Bill Glaseman, video specialist at the Chandler, Ariz.-based chain.

"On the sell-through side there is a great lineup," said Bill Bryant, vice president for sales, grocery and drug at Ingram Entertainment, La Vergne, Tenn. "As usual, the fourth quarter is crowded and floor space is an issue in the supermarket class of trade."

The biggest factor this year, though, may well be DVD, given its recent explosive growth. "For supermarkets the action in the fourth quarter is definitely going to be in DVD," said Martin Blythe, vice president of publicity for Paramount Home Entertainment, Hollywood. "I've never seen such a great lineup of blockbusters."

"The surprise event for supermarkets will be the potential for DVD software sales in the fourth quarter," noted Bryant. "Hardware penetration has exceeded 7 million units and is expected to surpass 12 million units by January of 2001. Supermarkets should now be making plans to enter the sell-through arena."

"The real success story will be DVD," said Kirk Kirkpatrick, vice president of marketing for WaxWorks/VideoWorks, Owensboro, Ky. "Almost all of the hits coming in the fourth quarter will be released day-and-date on DVD."

These concurrent releases will help both the rental and sell-through markets, boosted by shorter theatrical-to-video windows. "Think back a few years," said Kirkpatrick. "Back then, many summer box-office hits weren't released on video until January or February. This year almost all of them will be available in the fourth quarter."

"The fourth quarter is loaded with great rental titles and many more are expected to be scheduled in November and December," said Bryant. "Ingram expects the box office of the releases to be comparable to last year. However, the variety and quality of films coming to home video will be superior."

The year-to-date theatrical box office of $1.48 billion was running slightly ahead of last year. However, only six films -- "Big Momma's House," "Dinosaur," "Erin Brockovich," "Gladiator," "Mission: Impossible 2" and "The Perfect Storm" -- had grossed more than $100 million this year, compared with 10 films by the same time last year.

While many of the summer titles lacked firm street-date announcements at the convention, they still generated much interest. "There was a lot of the usual speculation about product," said Greg Rediske, president of Video Management Co., Tacoma, Wash.

The following lineup is just some of what's on deck in the coming months. Universal Studios Home Video, Universal City, Calif., has a strong sell-through lineup early in the quarter, starting with new display merchandisers for its classic monster collection. "We're bringing in Universal's Halloween mix for sell-through, as well as some rental," said Glaseman of Bashas'.

"Universal has always owned the Halloween market," said Craig Kornblau, Universal's president of home video. "And Halloween is the second-largest retail time period for seasonal product." Titles repriced for sell-through in October include "The Bone Collector," "Psycho" and "End of Days." And on Halloween the studio will re-release both "Somewhere in Time" and "Touch of Evil." The former, a still-popular romance with Christopher Reeve and Jane Seymour, is the 20th-anniversary edition, available in a VHS clamshell at a $19.98 suggested retail price and on DVD at $29.98.

In addition, Universal will have 12 titles in its Classic Holiday Favorites collection, 19 titles in its Great Holiday Gift Ideas collection, four new-to-video titles ("Boom!," "Secret Ceremony," "Pufnstuf" and "Kitten With a Whip") in its Universal Treasures line, and 15 Holiday Gift Sets including collections of Alfred Hitchcock, Abbott & Costello, and Don Knotts, as well as the video debut of the "Captains & Kings" TV miniseries.

On Oct. 24 the studio will also have the long-awaited DVD release of "American Beauty" from DreamWorks, an "awards edition" with more than 3.5 hours of bonus material. The cassette will be repriced for sell-through at the same time.

Other October DVD releases include both "Jurassic Park" films. "We'll be releasing them on DVD on Oct. 10 in preparation for part three," said Kornblau. "The key to bringing out classic and catalog titles is having a valid reason to do so." In this case they're part of a promotion that includes Internet chat sites and streaming video from the set of the upcoming theatrical release, he said.

Paramount's Halloween lineup includes a special-edition "Sleepy Hollow" cassette, Oct. 3, at $14.95, which includes cast and crew interviews from the DVD. Also coming Oct. 3 is the commemorative edition of "Rosemary's Baby" at $14.95 on VHS and $29.99 on DVD. Both will feature interviews with the filmmakers; the DVD adds a "making of" featurette.

Halloween merchandisers from Warner Home Video will have live-action titles like "Gremlins," Beetlejuice," "The Goonies" and "Addams Family Reunion," plus animated fare with old and new characters. "For Halloween we'll be bringing in a customized mix from Warner that includes 'Bug's Bunny's Halloween Hijinks,' 'Casper Saves Halloween,' and 'The Scarecrow,"' said Vanover of K-VA-T.

Fox is re-releasing fearful films for the season on cassette at various price points. Titles in "The Omen" series are $9.98 each or $29.98 in a four-pack. The original "The Fly" and its sequel, "Return of the Fly," are available singly or in a $14.98 two-pack, as are "The Fly" remake and its sequel, "The Fly II."

Christmas promotions arrive from Fox on Halloween with $14.98 reissues of the "Home Alone" films, both versions of "Miracle on 34th Street," "Jingle All the Way," "Anastasia," "Bartok the Magnificent," and two versions of "A Christmas Carol" -- one animated and one with George C. Scott as Scrooge.

A&E Home Video, New York, kicks off its holiday season Oct. 10 with the video release of "Peter Pan," the Broadway musical starring Cathy Rigby, at $19.95 on VHS and $29.95 on DVD. Backed by extensive national promotions, the title, which will street two days after its network TV broadcast, marks an attention-getting entry into children's programming for A&E. "A&E is wise to use the broadcast as a lead-in for the video," said Kirkpatrick. "That's great publicity."

"As a literary classic, it's a perfect fit for us," said Kate Winn, director of marketing at A&E Television Networks, New York. "And supermarkets feel that it's a natural fit for them as well, being family-oriented." Supermarkets expressing an interest in the title at this summer's VSDA convention included Kroger, Pathmark Stores, ShopRite and Giant Eagle.

The Neverland Sweepstakes, partnering A&E with American Airlines and Samsung in conjunction with the release, is a national promotion with a grand prize of a Virgin Islands trip for a family of four. Other prizes include VCRs, DVD players and one-year supplies of Peter Pan Peanut Butter.

Supermarkets will benefit directly from the last partnership, supported in October by stickers on four million jars of peanut butter in retail markets. Then, on Nov. 5, A&E and Peter Pan will run a half-page freestanding insert (reaching more than 24 million consumers) with a Neverland Cookie recipe and a $3 rebate for purchasers of the video/DVD and all affiliated products.

The most eagerly awaited sell-through release of the quarter may well be Disney's "Toy Story 2," to be released on both VHS (at $26.98) and DVD (in a $39.98 two-pack with "Toy Story") Oct. 17. "Considering it was originally scheduled to be released directly to video, its blockbuster performance in theaters was a surprise," said Kirkpatrick. "You could say that Disney had a $200 million ad campaign for it."

There are several other strong contenders for fourth quarter sell-through. Warner has "Pokemon 2000," while Disney has "Fantasia 2000." Fox has "X-Men." And Universal has both "Nutty Professor II: The Klumps" and "Adventures of Rocky & Bullwinkle," as well as the DreamWorks titles "Road to El Dorado" and "Chicken Run."

"We would still like to see at least a couple more big sell-through titles before Christmas," said Craig Hill, video specialist at Harps Food Stores, Springdale, Ark. With so much product now in the pipeline, supermarket video specialists should get their wishes.