STRANGE FALL

David Merrefield

It's been some fall, with many curious events ranging from the weather itself to the sudden appearance of a new spate of layoffs buffeting the market. Some of the winds of change now blowing across the industry make the actual weather look like the most controllable force of all.

So let's start with the weather. The weather has been strange in many parts of the country. In the East, it was quite chilly in late October and early November, than unseasonably balmy conditions returned and lasted through the middle part of last week. Meanwhile, snow fell in the deserts of the Southwest. There's no accounting for it. In retailing, observations about the weather rise above the level of idle chatter since many retail sectors -- notably apparel, seasonal goods and, to some extent, food -- are influenced significantly by the weather.

Nonetheless, in many retail sectors for which data is already available, sales are holding strong regardless of weather. Many weather-sensitive general-merchandise and apparel retailers predict that sales this holiday season will rise by 5% and say store traffic has been strong. This is according to an issue of WWD published last week. WWD is a sister publication of SN's. Indeed, retail sales in general for the entire period of October to October, excluding autos, have been up sharply.

Will year-end sales also prove to be strong for food retailers? It seems as though that might be the case, especially as more seasonable weather reasserts itself. Already there's good news about food sales coming in. A quick survey of food retailers, results of which were published in last week's SN, shows that quite a number experienced strong Thanksgiving sales and are optimistic about sales for the balance of this year.

Here's a summary of what some of the retailers polled said accounted for their Thanksgiving-sales experiences, and their favorable outlook for December.

Some retailers leveraged incremental sales from convenience offerings and sharp pricing.

Other retailers found Thanksgiving success by aiming at the upper end of the market and eschewing the giveaway or near-giveaway of turkeys. Clearly, this is the best way to go. Turkey giveaways, even if aimed at high-spending shoppers, may be the most self-destructive promotional practice in which supermarkets engage, of which there are quite a few. It's as if Bloomingdale's gave away hats, scarves and gloves in December, but charged full price for them the rest of the year.

SN will publish a sales wrap-up news article in the issue of Dec. 28. Assuming that survey shows food sales weighing in on the strong side this season, will such obtain in the New Year?

The question really goes to the economy and to many classes of retail trade. It's probably safe to be a little optimistic since economic vitality remains strong. But there are certainly reasons for concern. Chief among them is the renewed layoff activity seen in many industries. Should that trend continue, as it probably will for a time, it could sap consumers' confidence in the future and translate into reduced spending.